Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
Page 1 / 2   >   >>
joscios
User Rank
Rookie
Re: Great growth
joscios   2/8/2014 2:21:28 PM
NO RATINGS
Thanks for the great post. There are so many things I didn't know about it.

 

 

Unterwäsche

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Blogger
Re: 8 percent
zewde yeraswork   2/7/2014 10:34:04 AM
NO RATINGS
There is a great deal of uncertainty now that the transition is underway, but then again there was already a certain degree of uncertainty before as the market settled in and the same cycle repeated itself. Uncertainty is just part of the dynamic with these kinds of forecasts. The only way to reduce uncertainty is to look at specific outcomes over many years carefully, which may be hard to do given the current state of the market.

ddnrkik
User Rank
Rookie
Re: Great growth
ddnrkik   2/6/2014 9:47:56 PM
NO RATINGS
great info....

 

Kaos

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Re: 8 percent
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:31:36 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Jessica and Jim - I am in the circa 4 percent camp for 2014's sales growth expectation. See my detailed comment BELOW. 

Mike Cowan (Independent semiconductor market watcher)

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Latest Cowan LRA Model's Forecast Numbers For 2014
Cowan LRA Model   2/6/2014 4:06:04 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Jessica - per the subject I have just run my LRA forecasting model using the latest end-of-year 2013 sales numbers recently posted (Feb 4th, 2014) by the SIA / WSTS. The resulting global semi sales and sales growth numbers "spit out" by the model are summarized below:

1Q14 = $74.91 billion w/ yr-o-yr sales growth of 6.3%;

2Q14 = $77.16 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.4%;

3Q14 = $83.11 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 3.2%;

and 4Q14 = $81.49 billion w/yr-o-yr sales growth of 1.9%.

Therefore, the model's latest, just updated full year 2014 sales and sales growth expectations are $316.668 billion and 3.6%, respectively.

These latest Cowan LRA Model's predictions are in excellent agreement with the WSTS's Dec 2013 sales forecast estimate of $316.636 billion which, employing the final 2013 sales number of $305.584, corresponds to a 2014 yr-o-yr sales growth forecast of 3.6% also.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor industry watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales  

JimMcGregor
User Rank
Blogger
Re: 8 percent
JimMcGregor   2/6/2014 2:19:45 PM
NO RATINGS
I think 4% revenue growth is more reasonable and still optimistic. The market is changing with increased competition and more focus on mobile, embedded, and new IoT applications that are often smaller and less expensive. Units should still continue to grow, but we are likely on a plateau for revenue.

LarryM99
User Rank
CEO
Re: 8 percent
LarryM99   2/6/2014 1:25:37 PM
NO RATINGS
I am thinking that there is good growth in the market but not in the areas where it has come before. Contrast this to the ugly things that have come out of Intel and other traditional leaders recently and you see a real transition away from dependence on PC growth and towards cell phones / tablets / smart thermostats and smoke alarms. That type of shift tends to introduce more uncertainty into predictions.

Jessica Lipsky
User Rank
Author
Re: 8 percent
Jessica Lipsky   2/6/2014 12:39:10 PM
NO RATINGS
DB couldn't give additional details on why they forecast 8% growth, which is double that of the WSTS. WSTS/SIA (which use the same numbers) couldn't comment beyond "improved macro picture" - which makes me curious why there is such a difference in estimates. Is ~4% or 8% growth in 2014 more likely?

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Blogger
8 percent
zewde yeraswork   2/6/2014 12:18:33 PM
NO RATINGS
Over 8 percent growth is a healthy forecast. We'll see if that holds up in the coming year with some of the disruption in the overall markets. So far though, so good.

daleste
User Rank
CEO
Re: Great growth
daleste   2/6/2014 9:43:32 AM
NO RATINGS
Yes, rain would be good here in Dallas also.  At least it is snowing today.

Page 1 / 2   >   >>


EE Life
Frankenstein's Fix, Teardowns, Sideshows, Design Contests, Reader Content & More
Glen Chenier

Engineers Solve Analog/Digital Problem, Invent Creative Expletives
Glen Chenier
1 Comment
An analog engineer and a digital engineer join forces, use their respective skills, and pull a few bunnies out of a hat to troubleshoot a system with which they are completely unfamiliar. ...

Max Maxfield

What's the Best Traveling Toolkit?
Max Maxfield
13 comments
A few years ago at a family Christmas party, I won a pocket knife as part of a "Dirty Santa" game. This little scamp was a Buck 730 X-Tract. In addition to an incredibly strong and sharp ...

Rishabh N. Mahajani, High School Senior and Future Engineer

Future Engineers: Don’t 'Trip Up' on Your College Road Trip
Rishabh N. Mahajani, High School Senior and Future Engineer
10 comments
A future engineer shares his impressions of a recent tour of top schools and offers advice on making the most of the time-honored tradition of the college road trip.

Larry Desjardin

Engineers Should Study Finance: 5 Reasons Why
Larry Desjardin
41 comments
I'm a big proponent of engineers learning financial basics. Why? Because engineers are making decisions all the time, in multiple ways. Having a good financial understanding guides these ...

Top Comments of the Week
Flash Poll
Like Us on Facebook
EE Times on Twitter
EE Times Twitter Feed

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)