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Bruzzer
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Freelancer
Intel Production Economics
Bruzzer   2/14/2014 2:32:15 AM
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INTEL PRODUCTION ECONOMICS

Haswell Quads and Dual Mobile

171,121 + 300 mm wafers

37,402,596 to 41,083,533 Units

Normalized Dice Size 158 mm^2

DESIGN PRODUCTION COST

Avergage Weighed 1K Price, Marginal Revenue, Marginal Cost

Note / 2 and / 4 rough method to determine Intel Revenue & Hard Cost

Worst; $328, $211, $118

Mid 1   $278, $213, $ 65

Mid 2   $307, $236, $ 72

Best     $294, $237, $ 57

Percent by Frequency

1.3 to 2.0 GHz 13%

2.2 to 3.0 GHz 21%

3.1 to 3.7 GHz 65%

Broker Channel Inventory

31% i7 Quad Desktop

35% i5 Quad Desktop

 7% i3 Quad Disabled

 3% E3 12xx v3 Quad Desktop

14% i7 Quad Mobile

  2% i7 Dual Mobile

  4% i5 Dual Mobile

  2% i3/Pentium Dual Mobile

Ivy Refresh 16xx v2, 26xx v2, 24xx v2 

397,762 + 300 mm wafers

68,234,094 to 73,013,326 units

Quad Core  17%

Hexa Core  19.4%

Octa Core   21%

Deca Core  29%

Dode Core  13.5%

Normalized Dice Size 333 mm^2

DESIGN PRODUCTION COST

Average Weighed 1K Price, Marginal Revenue, Marginal Cost  

Note / 2 and / 4 rough method to determine Intel Revenue & Hard Cost

Good; $1102. $960, $142

Best;  $1138, $1010, $127

Percent by Frequency

1.7 to 2.0 GHz 01.779%

2.1 to 2.9 GHz 13.618%

3.0 to 3.7 GHz 84.604%

Broker Channel Inventory

Ivy E all grades 80%

24xx v2 all grades 0.0024%

26xx v2 Quad 0.04%

26xx v2 Hexa 0.05%

26xx v2 Octa  0.05%

26xx v2 Deca 0.044%

26xx v2 Dode 0.017%

Bay Trail ramps then becomes uninteresting. tbd future date

Mike Bruzzone, Camp Marketing

 

 

daleste
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CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
daleste   2/13/2014 9:30:02 PM
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Yes, we have seen the PC market slow because there are many people and applications that are happy with the tablet or smart phone.  The serious users still need the desktop or laptop to get their work done.  Since Microsoft is discontinuing support of XP on April 1, I expect to see a spike in desktop and laptop purchases this spring since many companies are still on XP.

LarryM99
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CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
LarryM99   2/13/2014 5:56:27 PM
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I'd like to see how much traction HP is getting on its recent return to Win7 as an option. That is probably the closest that we could get to removing the Windows 8 factor. We can read between the lines to some degree in terms of them making that move at all. Anecdotal evidence: I've put together several Win7 systems recently for non-techie friends that specifically didn't want Win8, and spoken with many that really didn't like it.

Bert22306
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CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
Bert22306   2/13/2014 5:19:26 PM
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A more honest assessment of the PC market is that it appears to be recovering. Year to year, by the 4th quarter of 2013, it had recovered most of its losses. Trend lines matter. Another possible quarterly downturn 1Q 2014, compared with 4Q 2013, is not enough to change a long term trend.

But I guess "PC market appears to be recovering" doesn't sell enough copy.

Wilco1
User Rank
CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
Wilco1   2/13/2014 5:01:16 PM
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The text clearly states that Surface Pro is included in the numbers: "Mobile PCs, which include netbooks, PC tablets, and ultrabooks".

You can't just look at the quarterly results and claim the increase will continue without providing evidence - the evidence from previous years is that Q4 is traditionally strong and Q1 is bad. No doubt this will be true for 2014 as well. So the year on year line will go rapidly down again, not go up further as you seem to hope. And that despite counting Surface Pro as PCs..

You can't deny 2013 has been an extremely bad year for PCs compared to 2012. Even the strong Q4 didn't stop the large yearly decline. Now compare this decline with the 33% growth of tablets (which have now overtaken mobile PC sales): http://www.ciol.com/ciol/news/208424/tablets-outsell-mobile-pcs-2013

Bert22306
User Rank
CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
Bert22306   2/13/2014 4:05:34 PM
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Take a look at the graph in this article:

http://www.zdnet.com/global-mobile-pc-market-underperforming-despite-growth-7000026246/

Here's what I see. Large drop in Q1 of 2012 compared with the previous quarter, strong drop in Q1 of 2013 compared with the previous quarter. But then two consecutive strong increases in Q3 and Q4 of 2013.

Look at the year over year sales. I see a line that dropped to its low point Q2 of 2013, and has seen a quite healthy increase ever since. Certainly, a stronger and longer upswing than any since Q1 of 2012, which is as far back as that graphic goes.

To attribute the steady upward trend from Q2 of 2013 to "holiday shopping" sounds mighty disingenuous to me. Not too many people begin holiday shopping in April. If anything, I would interpret those curves to show that the handheld market is leveling off, as all such new markets eventually do, giving people a chance to upgrade their PCs once again.

And of course there's always the error introduced by miscounting. A Surface Pro, by all accounts, should be counted as a PC and not a tablet. Don't know how it was categorized in those graphs. So, "PC in decline" must simply sell more articles.

Wilco1
User Rank
CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
Wilco1   2/13/2014 3:14:28 PM
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"Why are the pundits constantly pushing this "PC in decline" mantra, when it isn't the case? It's starting to sound like a religious chant."

Who says that PC sales are increasing? That's not at all what the article said. All reports state that the PC market is continuing its decline, eg: 

"If, however, the figures were measured year-over-year, the market would have seen the sixth straight year decline on a quarterly basis, down 5 percent on the fourth quarter of 2012."

So the only reason Q4 was better than Q3 is because of seasonality. Year on year the decline has continued - and that is what actually matters.

Do you think that Q1 this year will be better than Q4? I bet it will not only be lower than Q4 but also lower than Q1 last year. That's why we call it a decline.

Bert22306
User Rank
CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
Bert22306   2/13/2014 2:40:53 PM
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I totally agreee with Ski Bum. Why are the pundits constantly pushing this "PC in decline" mantra, when it isn't the case? It's starting to sound like a religious chant.

In spite of the increased sales, initially reported end of last year, the trade press continues to insist "PC in decline," or in this case, if not actually in decline, "missed the mark." We've already discussed the changing definition of PC, how it can now apply to devices that look more like tablets. My thinking is, people still need PC-like devices, that are useful to do more than just run someone else's "apps" and read magazines. People may have bought up a lot of traditional iPad/Kindle-style tablets in the past, a new product category, but that doesn't mean they have stopped doing anything productive. Eventually, PC sales and PC-tablet hybrid sales are bound to rebound.

If history repeats itself, new power-hungry applications will continue to be developed, now that tablets have about saturated the market, allowing software developers to concentrate on more than just tablet software. And these new and more demanding applications will generate sales of higher powered PCs.

AZskibum
User Rank
CEO
Re: PC Sales Stagnating
AZskibum   2/13/2014 12:54:05 PM
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9.4% growth in one quarter is remarkable in what so many pundits are calling a declining business. I wonder what it would've been if the Windows 8 factor were removed?

HankWalker
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Manager
PC Sales Stagnating
HankWalker   2/13/2014 11:59:12 AM
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I think the most obvious reason for business PC sales stagnation is that the typical PC is "good enough" for more years than it used to be, due to the lack of compelling new CPU/memory hungry applications, and the increased shift to server-side computing.

 

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