Embedded Systems Conference
Breaking News
Comments
Newest First | Oldest First | Threaded View
Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Author
Strong Jan. Global Semiconductor Sales As Reported By the WSTS "Jump Starts" 2014 Sales Growth Forecast To Greater Than 11 Percent
Cowan LRA Model   3/5/2014 6:40:08 PM
NO RATINGS
Hi Scott-
The latest run of the Cowan LRA Model's sales forecast for 2014 came in at $339.98 billion which equates to a sales growth expectation for 2014 of 11.3 percent. This latest sales growth forecast as gleamed from the model is up quite dramatically from last month's sales growth estimate of 3.6 percent which was based upon a Jan 2014 sales forecast estimate of $23.36 billion. The actual global semi sales result for January as reported by the WSTS came in at a much higher sales number of $25.11 billion resulting in a 3Xstronger sales growth forecast for 2014. The 2014 quarterly sales and yr-o-yr sales growth numbers are summarized in the following table compared to the corresponding 2013 final results per the WSTS's Dec 2013 HBR.
 
Mike Cowan, independent semi-industry market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA forecasting Model
 
  2013 FINAL 2014 FRCST'D  2013=>14
  SALES ($B) SALES ($B) SALES GRWTH
1Q $70.449 $80.418 14.1%
2Q $74.645 $82.824 11.0%
3Q $80.552 $89.280 10.8%
4Q $79.938 $87.459 9.4%
Full Year $305.584 $339.981 11.3%


Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Author
Re: Jan 2014's Quoted Sales Represents A 3MMA Sales Number
Cowan LRA Model   3/4/2014 11:32:01 AM
NO RATINGS
Hi Zewde - you are correct, the difference is subtle and in the eyes of the beholder. Either method - employing the 3MMA sales result or the actual sales number - for tracking the growth of the industry is valid. For example invoking the 2014 yr-o-yr sales growth using the Jan 2014 3MMA result, as the SIA points out, is 8.8 percent while using the Jan actual sales number turns out to be a sales growth of 8.5 percent compared to 2013 - a subtle difference of 0.3 percentage points; but lower. Obviously I prefer using the YTD sales approach as the measure of yr-o-yr sales growth each month for tracking the industry's growth trajectory since inherently, I believe, it better reflects the health of global semi sales growth especially as the year plays out, that is, as additional months of sales are reported. I guess "whatever floats your boat" methodology of the two approaches comes into play. 

Mike Cowan, independent semi-industry market watcher and creator of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semiconductor sales (see URL = http://www.wesrch.com/profile-mikecowan-313)

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Author
Re: Jan 2014's Quoted Sales Represents A 3MMA Sales Number
zewde yeraswork   3/4/2014 10:08:19 AM
NO RATINGS
So what is the signifcance of this subtle difference in the numbers, ultimately?

zewde yeraswork
User Rank
Author
Re: Jan 2014's Quoted Sales Represents A 3MMA Sales Number
zewde yeraswork   3/4/2014 10:07:47 AM
NO RATINGS
SIA's numbers reflect the health of the internet of things market and the way in which that is fueling semiconductor growth on a consistent basis. This industry has nowhere to go but up.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Author
Jan 2014's Quoted Sales Represents A 3MMA Sales Number
Cowan LRA Model   3/4/2014 2:38:29 AM
NO RATINGS
Per the subject the SIA global semiconductor sales number for Jan 2014 that is quoted ($26.28 billion) in the above article represents a three-month moving average (3MMA) sales result. The SIA in its monthly Global Sales Report (GSR) normally reports the 3MMA per the following qualification: "All monthly sales numbers are compiled by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represents a three-month moving average." The actual sales number for Jan 2014 came in at $25.105 billion as calculated from the Jan 2014 3MMA sales number and the actual sales results for Nov 2013 and Dec 2013 previously reported by the WSTS in their Dec 2013 HBR, Historical Billings Report. Therefore, although the 3MMA sales number for Jan 2014 was an historical high sales result for Jan, the actual sales number came in as a second high compared to Jan 2011's actual sales number of $25.173 billion. 

Mike Cowan

daleste
User Rank
Author
Good Start
daleste   3/3/2014 10:22:02 PM
NO RATINGS
Assume to have a good start to the year.  Hopefully world events won't weigh on the growth.



Radio
NEXT UPCOMING BROADCAST
In conjunction with unveiling of EE Timesí Silicon 60 list, journalist & Silicon 60 researcher Peter Clarke hosts a conversation on startups in the electronics industry. One of Silicon Valley's great contributions to the world has been the demonstration of how the application of entrepreneurship and venture capital to electronics and semiconductor hardware can create wealth with developments in semiconductors, displays, design automation, MEMS and across the breadth of hardware developments. But in recent years concerns have been raised that traditional venture capital has turned its back on hardware-related startups in favor of software and Internet applications and services. Panelists from incubators join Peter Clarke in debate.
Flash Poll
Top Comments of the Week
Like Us on Facebook

Datasheets.com Parts Search

185 million searchable parts
(please enter a part number or hit search to begin)
Special Video Section
Chwan-Jye Foo (C.J Foo), product marketing manager for ...
The LTģ3752/LT3752-1 are current mode PWM controllers ...
LED lighting is an important feature in todayís and future ...
Active balancing of series connected battery stacks exists ...
After a four-year absence, Infineon returns to Mobile World ...
A laptopís 65-watt adapter can be made 6 times smaller and ...
An industry network should have device and data security at ...
The LTC2975 is a four-channel PMBus Power System Manager ...
In this video, a new high speed CMOS output comparator ...
The LT8640 is a 42V, 5A synchronous step-down regulator ...
The LTC2000 high-speed DAC has low noise and excellent ...
How do you protect the load and ensure output continues to ...
General-purpose DACs have applications in instrumentation, ...
Linear Technology demonstrates its latest measurement ...
10:29
Demos from Maxim Integrated at Electronica 2014 show ...
Bosch CEO Stefan Finkbeiner shows off latest combo and ...
STMicroelectronics demoed this simple gesture control ...
Keysight shows you what signals lurk in real-time at 510MHz ...
TE Connectivity's clear-plastic, full-size model car shows ...
Why culture makes Linear Tech a winner.