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Re: 10-12 Years
resistion   4/4/2014 9:54:16 PM
Since they are stacking ONO layers laterally in 3D NAND instead of vertically on floating gate, the lateral scaling of 3D NAND is probably already at/near its limit, but certainly the number of vertical layers is supposed to increase as much as possible. But eventually, the vertical channel gets too long.

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Re: 10-12 Years
Or_Bach   4/4/2014 5:05:17 PM
It seems that NAND Flash have many more years of a roadmap. The 3D NAND started mass production with relativly old process node 40nm - 24 layers. It could scale up for over 128 layers and down to the 14/16 nm over time. These represent too many nodes, and accordingly years, to make any reasonable prediction at this time.

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Cost goes down with maturity
resistion   4/4/2014 2:36:04 PM
No doubt that a new technology would initially have its cost, but mature technologies have had years of cost-reduction methods applied and there is no reason not to include cost-reduction in new technology development as well.

Treating 3D NAND as a "new" technology, when can it get its cost appreciably down? Or will it be accepted anyway after 1Z, even if it is more expensive?

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10-12 Years
DrFPGA   4/4/2014 1:38:57 PM
To me 10-12 years seems like a very short time to get a new technology in place when the profit margins on existing technologies will be under continued pressure. Where is the $ going to come from to fund significant new technology development, manufacturing plant and other infrastructure expenses... Wowzers!

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