Smaller (datacenters) decrease...larger increase...China is starting to take the market share...the overall market flat or slighly declining...nothing really new..I think that applies to most technologies today ;-)...Kris
You kinda stole my words, Kris. Everything seems to be as one would expect. I don't really see who the big Ethernet switch buyers WOULD be, if not data centers, and of course also ISPs and enterprise networks.
If enterpise networks outsource their data center functions, that doesn't sound odd either. Individual households, whenever possible, I'm pretty sure use WiFi rather than cabled Ethernet and switches. So aside from the one modem/router/switch combination box, I would expect any extra standalone Ethernet switches in households would be the exception.
Rick, the interesting thing is the emergence of true 25Gbps fibers. 10GbE and 40GbE are carried on parallel fibers with usually a 2.5Gbps rate on each fiber. If you are building a 100,000 machine DC with 10GbE, that is a staggering amount of fiber.
So, when the transceiver story for 25Gbps settles down and they are shipping in volume at reasonable prices, there are some interesting questions. How many folks would be happy to take the speed boost to 25, use just one fiber, and say they are really happy? Win-win, what's not to like? Why make it more complicated by going to 50 (or 40, which would run fiber pairs at 20)? I suspect a lot of machinery can cruise just fine at 25 and never reach that ceiling. The supercomputer crowd, of course, will want 100.
The underlying technology is modular (and has been for some time) so we will see all kinds of variety in deployment, and it will not matter much. Just like 40 GbE and 10 GbE switches today use mostly the same components just configured differently.
The thing to watch is how the new 25Gbps transceivers reach the market, and the impact they are going to have no matter how they are configured.