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chipmonk0
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CEO
Re: >10% growth
chipmonk0   5/9/2014 2:00:03 PM
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@ Peter

Most of the growth seems to be in Asia Pacific and China would be the engine there. Right now China is in the process of upgrading over to 4G LTE phones & systems. That cannot go on forever. So is this a temporary bubble ? If so any guess as to how many quarters will it last ?

rick merritt
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Author
Re: >10% growth
rick merritt   5/8/2014 4:36:00 PM
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Double digit growth sounds pretty good to me!

Peter Clarke
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Blogger
Re: >10% growth
Peter Clarke   5/8/2014 9:25:44 AM
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Q1 is usually a few percentage points down on the previous Q4 about 4 percent as I remember being the average over the prevous 10 years.

So a 12 percent decline is significant for Americas seems odd.

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
Latest Cowan LRA Model's Sales & Growth Expectations For 2014
Cowan LRA Model   5/8/2014 9:24:57 AM
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Hi Peter - back calculating the actual sales number for March from the SIA's posted 3MMA Global Billings Report spreadsheet (URL = http://www.semiconductors.org/clientuploads/directory/IndustryStatistics/GSR1976-March%202014.xls) results in a March 2014 sales of $28.095 billion. Plugging this sales number into the Cowan LRA Model (see URL = http://electronics.wesrch.com/paper-details/pptx-EL1SE1J5ABATH-forecasting-global-semiconductor-sales-by-exploiting-linear-regression-analysis-lra) yields a 2014 sales expectation of $331.335 billion which corresponds to a Yr-O-Yr sales growth forecast of 8.4 percent.

HOWEVER, this latest updated sales growth estimate is down strongly from last month's prediction of 11.9 percent indicating momentum loss in 2014's sales growth rate. The following table shows the month-by-month sales and sales growth evolution as determined by the model.

BY-MONTH EVOLUTION OF COWAN LRA MODEL's GLOBAL SEMI SALES

FORECAST EXPECTATIONS FOR 2014

 
    Y-O-Y Sales
Forecast Date Sales ($B) Growth (%)
9-09-13 $320.449 5.4%
10-07-13 $319.709 5.1%
11-07-13 $317.826 4.7%
12-06-13 $317.822 4.5%
1-10-14 $318.689 4.4%
2-10-14 $316.695 3.6%
3-07-14 $339.981 11.3%
4-09-14 $342.061 11.9%
5-08-14 $331.335 8.4%

SOURCE: Monthly Runs Of Cowan LRA Forecasting Model; From Sept. 2013

through May 2014 (Date Of Forecast Update)

Peter Clarke
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Blogger
Re: >10% growth
Peter Clarke   5/8/2014 9:23:58 AM
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They don't break out North & South America...but i reckon essentially Americas region is predominantly U.S. and Canada

junko.yoshida
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Blogger
Re: >10% growth
junko.yoshida   5/8/2014 9:23:28 AM
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@Olaf, Good point. I am not sure what's going on there, but listening to several financial calls lately makes me believe that it might have something to do with seasonality. Especially in the US, the sequential growth of Q1 over Q4 is harder to come by.

Sheetal.Pandey
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Manager
Re: >10% growth
Sheetal.Pandey   5/8/2014 4:09:28 AM
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Asia Pacific has been a very good market for semiconductor's growth. Countries like India has been showing good growth and its only going to get better.

Olaf Barheine
User Rank
Rookie
Re: >10% growth
Olaf Barheine   5/8/2014 2:32:20 AM
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I agree with you. 11.4 percent are really very good, but -12.2 percent between Q4/2013 and Q1/2014 are a sharp decrease in the Americas that make me wonder. What are the reasons? Are there any detailed numbers for North and South America?

daleste
User Rank
CEO
>10% growth
daleste   5/7/2014 9:21:33 PM
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More than 10% growth year to year is great.  The volatility in the market over the past few weeks makes me wonder if the global economy will continue to improve.



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