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krisi
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CEO
Re: 6.5%
krisi   6/11/2014 10:16:03 AM
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thank you @Cowan

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
One More Set Of Forecast Numbers Re. WSTS's Expectations For 2013
Cowan LRA Model   6/11/2014 7:13:57 AM
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Hi krisi (again) - In order to be more rigorous in responding to your original question -

I wonder what WSTS predicted last year and what actually happened?

I went back to the WSTS's Fall 2012 forecast (published in Dec 2012) for 2013 sales. At that time WSTS forecasted global semi sales would be $289.9 B with a corresponding sales growth estimate of 4.5 percent. Consequently, one can see the "evolution" of their three sequential half-year forecast trend in sales, namely $290 B, $298 B, and finally $304 B for their previous three forecasts, respectively. As shown in the main article's forecast table the final, reported sales number for 2013 (ala the WSTS) was $305.6 B. Therefore, per the WSTS forecast sequence one sees that the 2013 sales forecast trend per their three forecasts leading up to 2013's final result "eases" into the final sales number.

Mike Cowan

sanjeev2302
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Rookie
Re: 6.5%
sanjeev2302   6/11/2014 5:09:38 AM
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Hi Mike,

Considering the last couple of quarters momentum, most of the analyst are bullish about 2014 forecast. I have my own reservations in hyped number. If you remember (we exchanged our notes for 2013/2014 forecast in Jan 2013) and I concluded the 2013 sales number to be $303.31 Bn. This year, I feel it will be difficult for the market to surpass $318 Bn mark. H2'14 may see pressure, as world economy forecast has been downgraded from 3.2% to 2.8%. This may further pull the momentum of WW sales. 

AP regions are always considered to be growth market drivers. Unfortunately due to slow growth in China and India, we have to be realistic on AP sales.

Best Regards,

Sanjeev

 

Cowan LRA Model
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Manager
Re: 6.5%
Cowan LRA Model   6/10/2014 10:24:57 PM
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Hi krisi - in reading your above comment I believe that you have misinterpreted what I wrote - the first paragraph contained in my first comment is the response to your original question as to what the WSTS (and SIA) forecasted for 2013's global semicondutor sales in their TWO previous forecasts, namely their SPRING 2013 and FALL 2013 prognostications. It directly answers your comment -

"I wonder what WSTS predicted last year and what actually happened."

The second paragraph relates to MY (Cowan LRA Model) most recent forecast exoectations for 2014 and compares it to the WSTS's just published forecast estimates for 2014.

I hope this clears up in your mind what I posted in my first comment.  Mike Cowan

 

FISH1230
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Rookie
Will Memory surpass Logic in few years?
FISH1230   6/10/2014 6:01:05 PM
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2014: Memory is $72B while LOgic is  $92B. With SSD replacing hard drive on Lap top and smart phone, I believe in few years Memory maket would be bigger than Logic.

krisi
User Rank
CEO
Re: 6.5%
krisi   6/10/2014 5:11:07 PM
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thank you Mike...sounds your Fall forecast was bang on...but the spring one missed by 2%, still decent

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Re: $B not $M
Cowan LRA Model   6/10/2014 4:43:15 PM
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Hi Peter - the previous comment by FISH1230 (entitled $B not $M) refers to your article.  Mike

FISH1230
User Rank
Rookie
$B not $M
FISH1230   6/10/2014 4:20:26 PM
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Wrong unit.

Cowan LRA Model
User Rank
Manager
Re: 6.5%
Cowan LRA Model   6/10/2014 4:07:46 PM
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Hi krisi - the two previous WSTS forecast estimates for total global semi sales for 2013 were $297.8 B (Spring 2013) and $304.3 B (Fall 2013) while the actual 2013 sales, as reported by the WSTS (March 2014), came in at $305.6 B.

By the way the latest, just updated, Cowan LRA Model's prediction for 2014 sales and sales growth expectations are $333.1 B and 9.0 percent, respectively which are more bullish than the WSTS's prediction just published of $325.4 B and 6.5 percent, respectively.

Mike Cowan, independent semiconductor market watcher and developer of the Cowan LRA Model for forecasting global semi sales

krisi
User Rank
CEO
6.5%
krisi   6/10/2014 12:36:23 PM
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6.5% growth in 2014...pretty nice...I wonder what WSTS predicted last year and what actually happened



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