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rick merritt
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Ambitious goals
rick merritt   8/20/2014 1:25:47 PM
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Expecting to deliver 50% of its chips by 2020 sounds like the kind of stretch I used to here the China Post predict routinely.

Expecting Samsung and Apple to stop innovating and decline in China handset sales sounds like someone's smoking something ;-)

That said, there's no doubt China is on a growth curve.

HJ88
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Re: Ambitious goals
HJ88   8/20/2014 4:35:54 PM
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China becoming no. 1 in handset volume in 2015 is a given.

Do not expect Apple and Samsung to stop innovating, but Apple's unit volume market share is around 15%.

Samsung's handset volumes are, however, declining, and they need to turn this around.

I agree the goal of 50% of semiconductor supply in China by 2020 is a big stretch, but there is access to large funding to support this growth.

A key question is how effective a government-industry partnership can be within fast moving markets.

There are a number of business models that can be adopted which can have relatively high levels of probability. The proposed acquisition of OmniVision is a radical new step.

wave.forest
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Re: Ambitious goals
wave.forest   8/21/2014 7:28:18 AM
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It depend on whether this is their "National Will". If it is, then be it. China always surprises us. Not many people know that Alibaba is bigger than Amazon and eBay combined. I just leanrn UnionPay, which was almost non-existing 10 years ago, is as big as Visa and MasteCard put together.

The only thing can constrain China is technology, not other innovations which do not matter much. As long as they know the technology, they comoditise everything, which is good for consumers but not very good for employment.

chanj0
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Re: Ambitious goals
chanj0   8/21/2014 1:49:15 PM
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What happen in the last few years is the production of most consumer electronics is shifted to China. The production thrives; the demand of design grows. ODM will then lead to innovated as there is enough capital to attract talents. China electronic market will continue thrive; so is the production. The only factor that will slow down the growth is economic factors.

GSMD
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Re: Ambitious goals
GSMD   8/21/2014 9:19:32 PM
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I guess when you talking such large numbers, most of the volume falls into the relatively lower tech category. By 2018, I would even consider 28 nm as commodity. The cutting edge stuff where tech leadership is needed, probbaly does not account for a larger share of the market.

So if China is just  seeting a numbers goal and not aiming for tech leadership in all major segment, it should be doable technically. Whether production can ramp up is another issue altogether. But as some else pointed out, China is good a large project execution.

docdivakar
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Re: Ambitious goals
docdivakar   8/22/2014 5:05:29 PM
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@GSMD I agree, it is not far-fetched idea for China to attain No.1 position in product ownership but No.1 in technology leadership is another matter. This is not to say China is lagging far behind, but it has to change some things fundamentally to reach No.1 in technology leadership by 2020.

The Western economies recognized post WW-II the importance of getting good talent from all over the world. China on the otherhand nurtured home-grown talent and only in the last decade or so it has encouraged foreign professionals to work there. If this is ramped up, there is little doubt that it will reach No.1 in technology leadership!

MP Divakar

rick merritt
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Re: Ambitious goals
rick merritt   8/22/2014 5:59:08 PM
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@doc: Good point. China has a tech culture of being a great fast follower but has put less emphasis so far on being a breakthrough leader in new tech...or can someone show some examples to the contrary?

sprite0022
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Re: Ambitious goals
sprite0022   8/24/2014 11:09:32 PM
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hi rick, china does new tech. it's just being primary and small scale so far.

the problem might relate to it's management efficiency.

2 example, Cui Yi on Li-ion battery, ZL Wang on ZnO generator.

both are chinese graduated. 

what this proves might be US has better soil for large scale innovation.

 

china has ample small, tiny new techs, such as on kid's scooters etc.

I would say western's religious background play a important role. it helps them to cooperate.

I know several high output r&d team in a major US firm, all religious folks. saints like. treat each other with plenty of love.

sprite0022
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Re: Ambitious goals
sprite0022   8/25/2014 1:53:40 AM
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actualy if you have been reading IEEE spectrum frequently there are plenty of chinese names in it. 

I believe the true reason is the chinese r&d funding /institutes are monopolyed by the govt which has only one govering system/philosophy , communism.

which is apparently less competitive vs. western religious system. but the chinese govnt still don't want to admit it yet.

so what we are seeing is many top chinese inovators stay in the west and generate top research there instead.

If (only if) the chinese govt would allow western style institute to exist it wont be surprising to see a couple of TSMC scale innovators to pop out.

 

 

Anand.Yaligar
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China has it all
Anand.Yaligar   8/20/2014 2:13:58 PM
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Not only does China have a booming electronics market, it also has a booming electronics export centre. Not only that, it has automation, labour, lesser costs and flexible man-machine hours. It will be number one sooner or later.

DrFPGA
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Re: China has it all
DrFPGA   8/21/2014 6:25:05 PM
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Probably just in time for Moores law to 'break' and electronics growth to slow to a standstill.

Maybe they will be able to source even more than 50% at that point...

sranje
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Emergence of China IC industry
sranje   8/22/2014 6:18:46 PM
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Dr. Jones article is, as usual, informative although it underestimates the total of smartphones. This is nothing new -- the US-centric market researchers consistently underestimate (by about 200M) the number of China's unbranded (whitebox) smartphones. Another item worth pointing out is the tremendous volume of China's smartphones that are being exported globally to mostly developing regions. One way or other - China will certainly succeed in building its strategically important IC industry and its infrastructure. One of the rarely mentioned impetus are spying programs of the US government

HJ88
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Re: Emergence of China IC industry
HJ88   8/22/2014 8:17:07 PM
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Thank you for your inputs.

We are very much aware of whiteboxes, and we do reconcile our phone shipments with modem shipments. If this is done, you will see that our numbers should be correct.

wgt0823
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China push - memory??
wgt0823   11/5/2014 2:03:06 PM
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Interesting and not unexpected regarding the China IC push.  Even more interesting will be how they attack the memory/storage market.  As Government entities they don't really care about making money so I suppose they could license (or steal) the IP for 24 nm NAND and 25 nm DRAM but what would they do beyond that?  Seems likely that memory oligopoly would would be loathe to license their leading edge planar and 3D IP so where are they going to get it?  Possibly a run at an acquisition in the ReRAM, PRAM area?  Would the US even allow that?  I guess over the next few years we'll get to find out.



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