SAN FRANCISCO—Semiconductor equipment spending is projected to decline 30.6 percent in 2008 and another 31.7 percent in 2009, according to a revised forecast issued Thursday (Dec. 18) by market research firm Gartner Inc.
The economic recession and supply-side issues have driven semiconductor manufacturers into "panic mode" for the first half of 2009, cutting capital spending even more deeply than 2008, according to Gartner.
In October, Gartner projected that chip capital spending would decline 25.2 percent this year and 12.8 percent in 2009.
Earlier this week, the trade group SEMI reported that the fab-tool market crashed in the third quarter of this year, when worldwide semiconductor manufacturing equipment billings reached $6.56 billion, down 16 percent from the second quarter and 41 percent less than the same quarter a year ago. On Wednesday, Gartner rival iSuppli Corp. cut its semiconductor industry revenue forecast for 2008 and 2009.
Based on the revised forecast, Gartner now expects worldwide semiconductor equipment revenue to total $31.1 billion in 2008 and $21.2 billion in 2009.
In a statement, Klaus Rinnen, managing vice president for Gartner's semiconductor manufacturing group, said the recession hit at a time when the chip and chip equipment industries were vulnerable.
"Device makers across all segments and even in the NAND and DRAM industry have begun to take steps to lower production rates and shutter fabs that are not cost-effective," Rinnen said. "We are seeing fabs postponed, and what little capex there is, it is selectively focused on new technologies."
Gartner now projects that spending on wafer fab equipment will decline 30.9 percent in 2008 and another 33.1 percent in 2009. Spending on lithography equipment will decline 22 percent in 2008, as the adoption of 193-nkm immersion takes more share than older technologies, the firm said. But lithography spending will decline 38 percent in 2009 as memory manufacturers slow the adoption of immersion and extend older equipment, according to Gartner.
Worldwide packaging and assembly equipment spending will fall nearly 30 percent in both 2008 and 2009, according to the revised forecast. The automated test equipment market will fall 30 percent in 2008 and nearly 20 percent more in 2009, when tester sales will fall below $2 billion, according to the forecast.
Gartner is selling a report titled, "Forecast: semiconductor capital equipment demand suffers as customers cut spending to the bone," through the firm's website.
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