PORTLAND, Ore. -- A study of the blossoming mechanical micromachining market is revealing some surprises about the companies dabbling in the technology, according to a paper presented at the Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology this week.

The study, being conducted from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and the New Jersey Institute of Technology, concentrates on micro electromechanical systems (MEMS) as an example of a "disruptive technology," one that upsets the industry's status quo, researcher Marylouise Dowd explained.

Researchers surveyed companies selling MEMS products or MEMS manufacturing equipment to see why they were participating in this market. Forecasts of MEMS sales vary widely, but most estimates have MEMS representing a market larger than $15 billion by the year 2000.

Companies in the study ranged from those with a single MEMS prototype and as yet no products, to established players such as Analog Devices Inc. and Texas Instruments Inc.

The results, which were being presented as preliminary findings, threw the research team for a loop. It was assumed that most companies were attracted to MEMS by the market "pull"--that $15 billion opportunity--but 65 percent said they were attracted by the "push" of the MEMS technology. In other words, most MEMS companies got into the business more for the technology itself than for specific market opportunities.

It turns out, the "pull" companies are process-technology and packaging specialists, who are breaking into the MEMS market to follow the lead of their IC vendor customers. Those IC vendors, however, seem to be getting into the market mainly to familiarize themselves with the technology.

More surprising, it appears companies aren't sticking to their core competencies when it comes to MEMS work. For example, companies with strong analog technology were expected to specialize in "sacrificial surface" micromachines, the newest and fastest growing subset of the MEMS market. Instead, however, those firms were found to be working on high aspect-ratio MEMS (HARM).

The research team hasn't yet discovered why their results differed from expectations. "Maybe it's the best technology," Dowd offered. "Maybe they've decided HARM is the wave of the future." But if that were the case, HARM would be the most popular MEMS technology across the board--and it isn't.

More likely, it's "just the essential nature of an emerging area--you just try anything," Dowd said.

In any event, the companies that stick to their core competencies--Analog Devices and TI among them--have been the most successful with MEMS so far, said Professor Steven Walsh of the New Jersey Institute of Technology.

The survey is part of an ongoing study on disruptive technologies, and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International.

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