Let's face it-the printed-circuit board tool market is in the doldrums. The supplier base has dramatically shrunk, revenues are down and pc-board tools claim a shrinking percentage of overall EDA revenues. But there are signs of a possible pickup ahead.

According to figures from Gartner Dataquest, the pc- board tools market declined 12 percent in 2001, while overall EDA software revenues were up 8 percent. Dataquest forecasts that 2002 will show a 2 percent decline, with a modest 1 percent growth in 2003, a year in which the research firm expects 20 percent growth in EDA software revenues.

While pcb tools accounted for 27 percent of EDA revenues in 1985, today they account for 14 percent, and that number is expected to decline even further.

There are various explanations for the pc-board decline. One is the emergence of low-cost tools that can meet the needs of many designers, particularly in Asia, where a lot of pc-board design is taking place. Another is the emergence of more complex chips that combine what used to be a number of discrete devices.

And certainly the economic slowdown, with fewer products being designed, has taken its toll.

Still, Dataquest predicts pc-board growth of 7 percent, 10 percent and 16 percent in 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. That's less than the overall EDA market, but encouraging nonetheless.

In a recent presentation, Daya Nadamuni, an analyst at Dataquest, discussed some of the reasons. Most designs take three or four iterations, many involve high clock speeds, and it's taking longer to get from prototype to production. There's a need, she said, for analysis tools that look at signal integrity, timing, electromagnetic interference, and thermal and power issues.

Multigigabit package/board design will be a driver for retooling, said Jamie Metcalf, vice president of strategic marketing at Cadence Design Systems Inc.'s pc-board division. Metcalf predicted a greater need for system-in-package design solutions, and for IC design-in kits that can help designers put complex chips on boards.

At the high end, said Joe Dalton, director of marketing for Mentor Graphics Corp.'s systems design division, growth will be fueled by high-speed nets and high pin counts. At the low end, he said, many of the current tools need to be replaced.

Until chips can float in space and do something useful, people will be designing circuit boards. They're going to need up-to-date tools to do that.

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