According to Dataquest's recently-released 2003 Market Trends report, PCB layout peaked in 2000 with revenue of $250.6 million. This is expected to drop to $153.2 million in 2003 (actual numbers not available yet), and rise slowly to $212 million in 2007. Mentor Graphics leads with 37 percent market share, and Mentor, Cadence Design Systems and Zuken collectively hold 84 percent. Yawn.

But wake up! The spice is in the side dishes, not the entre. PCB analysis for signal integrity, timing, EMI, thermal, and power is a growing market. It's divided among a number of vendors, with Ansoft leading at 30 percent market share.

The PCB analysis market is expected to grow from $36.8 million in 2003 to $55.7 million in 2007. Looking deeper, the signal-integrity portion is expected to grow from $18.3 million to $27.1 million in this time period, and the thermal portion from $9 million to $13.4 million. The report notes that thermal problems are beginning to appear as power densities and device temperatures rise.

There are also signs of life in PCB computer-aided manufacturing (CAM), expected to grow from $33.3 million in 2003 to $47.6 million in 2007; PCB virtual prototyping, expected to grow from $22.9 million to $36.6 million during this time period; and the multi-chip module, hybrid, and packaging tools market, expected to grow from $16 million to $24.9 million.

Put it all together, and the PCB design EDA market is pegged at $275 million for 2003. The report notes that PCB design is now about 14 percent of EDA revenues, compared to 27 percent in 1985. The expected compound annual growth rate from 2002 to 2007 is 4.6 percent, compared to 10.3 percent for IC CAD and 33.2 percent for electronic system level (ESL) design.

We aren't seeing startups in PCB design tools, and we aren't hearing much about acquisitions, new products, or new technology. That doesn't mean there aren't problems to be solved. And you still can't make a call from a cell phone until somebody puts the chips on a board.