What's next? 3D TV

In terms of market penetration, Wilson said HD televisions were present in only 17 percent of U.S. households last year, a number that will grow to 22 percent this year and will exceed 55 percent in 2008.

The year 2008 is crucial, because it is the year, according to panelist Byran Burns of ESPN, that sales of digital 16:9 TVs will exceed sales of analog 4:3 aspect TVs by a 12-to-1 ratio.

By then, analog television sales will be virtually illegal in many countries. Nishida of NHK noted that by 2007, the Japanese government has mandated the cutoff of analog-to-digital broadcast signal conversion. In 2011, Japan will cease entirely all analog broadcast, both terrestrial and satellite. Similarly, said Wilson, all TV sets in the U.S. larger than 13 inches will be required to include a digital tuner.

ESPN’s Burns was among the panelists who hailed the seemingly inevitable transition from analog to digital TV in epochal terms. “The perfect storm is about to hit the United States,” he said. He predicted that 100 million HDTV sets would be sold by the end of 2008, forcing broadcasters to follow the example of ESPN in offering virtually all TV content in HD.

He said, “Within a few short years, those with HD programming will win the ratings race.”

Hill was even more bullish, insisting that price and government mandates are helpful, but there are no more significant to the triumph of high-definition than the consumer’s desire for a more complete viewing experience. “People will buy HD sets because of a major difference in the perception of what TV is,” he said.

Hill went further, saying that, “There is no doubt that HDTV will revitalize the television audience. But as great as HD is, the true excitement is when every set in the world is capable of receiving 3D television. And we are capable of providing 3-D TV!”

— David Benjamin is a Paris-based freelance writer.