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VCs: Cleantech up but semis down in '08
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EE Times


SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Venture capital dollars for clean technology are projected to grow in 2008, but semiconductor funding will decline next year, according to a survey from the National Venture Capital Association (NVCA).

The NVCA (Washington, D.C.) also predicts an improved IPO market, fewer venture firms and concerns about global investments in certain regions, including China. The NVCA survey was conducted in early December and includes the predictions of more than 170 venture capitalists from across the United States.

"For venture capital firms, 2008 will be the year we begin to see larger funds raised at a faster pace, as many firms in the industry will focus on sectors that have increasing capital requirements such as life sciences and clean technology," said Mark Heesen, president of the NVCA, a trade group in the arena. The NVCA represents approximately 480 venture capital and private equity firms.

In total, venture capitalists are predicting moderate investment growth next year, with 71 percent of respondents pegging 2008 venture investment levels to be between $20-to-29 billion, according to the survey.

The average forecast is at $27 billion, which is flat compared to 2007 investment levels. A quarter of the respondents predict venture capital investment will be higher in the $30-to-39 billion range, according to group.

Some 80 percent of venture capitalists predict that the clean technology sector will attract higher levels of venture financing in 2008. However, 61 percent of respondents also believe that the clean technology sector will be overvalued next year, according to the group.

Other sectors of growth include media and entertainment, biotech, and Internet-specific companies. Investment in the medical devices and wireless telecom are expected to grow moderately with more than half the respondents predicting static or declining investment in these sectors.

Some 49.7 percent of venture capitalists predict a decline in semiconductor investing while 21 percent see declines in software, according to the report. Some 36.6 percent see flat venture capital dollars in semiconductors, while 13.7 percent project an increase in the arena.

The news is mixed in terms of international investing. Thirty-seven percent of respondents say they are "leery" about investing in South America, while 28 percent are hesitant to invest money into China next year. Eastern Europe also causes concern for 17 percent of the venture capitalists surveyed, according to the group.

Other predications for 2008:

*Most respondents believe the VC industry will consolidate further in 2008 with 57 percent predicting the number of venture firms will decrease next year,.

*While 59 percent of the venture capitalists are predicting further IPO market recovery, 44 percent see that recovery taking place at the same or a slower pace than 2007. Twenty-two percent see a flat IPO market and 19 percent believe the market will weaken for venture-backed companies.

*In the acquisitions market, the venture industry is split on how deal values will trend. Thirty-five percent say valuations will be higher; 27 percent say lower; and 38 percent say they will remain the same.

*A significant number of survey participants predict declines in the long term performance of the buyout and hedge fund industries. Forty-three and 51 percent predict declines in these respective industries over the long term.

*When asked about the state of the U.S. economy, 60 percent believe it will decline, 21 percent predict it will stay the same and 19 percent are betting on an improvement. However, 60 percent of venture capitalists say the sub prime credit woes will be contained in 2008.

*Fifty-five percent of respondents expect the price of oil to be above $92 per barrel next December with 41 percent calling for oil prices below $92.

*Looking ahead to the U.S. presidential election, 39 percent of respondents predict Hillary Clinton will be voted into office followed by Rudy Giuliani (21 percent), Barack Obama (16 percent), and Mitt Romney (11 percent).






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