SAN JOSE -- Worldwide PC shipments fell by 4.6% in 2001 over 2000, but the personal computer market is expected to rebound and grow by 4% in 2002, according to a new forecast released by Dataquest Inc. here.
But Dataquest also believes PC unit shipments will decline by 4% in the first quarter of 2002. The struggling PC sector is not expected to pick up and show any measurable improvement until the second half of this year, said the new report, which was released on Thursday. Dataquest's forecast for a second-half recovery in PC shipments assumes that a worldwide economic recovery will be underway by that time.
"While there is a mood of optimism in the industry, and having made it through the bloodbath that was 2001, evidence for an immediate improvement in the first quarter of 2002 is far from clear," said analyst Charles Smulders, who tracks the PC market at Dataquest.
Worldwide PC shipments totaled 128 million units in 2001, a 4.6% decline from 2000, said the San Jose-based research firm. U.S. personal computer shipments reached 44 million units in 2001, an 11.1% decline from the previous year, according to Dataquest.
Dataquest projected that the worldwide PC market will grow by 4%, or 133.1 million units, in 2002.
"On the positive side, it does not appear that the market is getting worse," Smulder said. "We do not expect to see a significant upturn in growth until the fourth quarter of 2002. This based on an economic upturn in the second half of the year."
There is more bad news as well. "Economic conditions combined with saturation issues in developed markets continue to impact PC market growth rates," Smulders said. "Performance over delivery on the PC platform is allowing existing users to postpone PC upgrades," he said.
"Preliminary indications show that, in the fourth quarter, we saw no return to buying in the fortune 500 market, but a slightly better than expected performance in the consumer market," he added.
According to another report issued by International Data Corp., consumer PC buying improved in the fourth quarter of 2001, but business purchases of systems remained weak. IDC estimated that worldwide PC unit shipments declined by 6.7% to 34.2 million in Q4 of 2001 from the same period in 2000. Sequentially the decline was 16.9% from the third quarter of 2001, said IDC, which is based in Framingham, Mass.
"We don't expect a rapid turnaround, but the seeds of recovery are being sown," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Depending on the economic environment, growth in the PC market may pick up more rapidly toward the end of the year."
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