MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. -- Semico Research Corp. here announced that it is not backing away from its bullish 19% growth forecast for the semiconductor industry in 2002 over 2001.
The Phoenix-based market research firm also said the separate PC and cellular-phone markets are expected to rebound after a horrific year in 2001 and resume double-digit growth rates in 2002.
The projections are welcomed news for the IC industry, which experienced its worst downturn in 2001. "The market will innovate its way out of the doldrums this year," declared Jim Feldham, president of Semico. "We also think the semiconductor market will return to a more normal cycles going forward," Feldham said during a presentation here on Tuesday.
Late last year, Semico set its forecast for semiconductor growth in 2002 at about 19%. Its forecast is more bullish than estimates from other research firms, which are generally calling for slight growth in chip revenues next year, in the range of 1-to-6% from 2001.
Driving the IC growth in 2002 will include the PC, cellular phone, consumer, other product sectors, according to Semico. In the cell-phone market, for example, worldwide shipments of handsets fell by 7-10% last year, from 420 million units in 2000, to between 380-to-390 million units in 2001, according to Semico.
In 2002, the worldwide handset market is expected to grow 20-25% and reach 480 million units, according to Semico. The new, high-end "smart phones" are expected to grow at a faster pace, while the "plain-vanilla" handset market is mature and slowing down, Feldham said.
He also projected 9-10% growth in the PC market for 2002, after negative growth in 2001. The desktop PC market is projected to grow 4-5% in 2002 over 2001, while the notebook computer market is expected to jump 13% this year, he said.
Other hot markets for chips include global positioning systems (GPS), MP3, home entertainment, and home networking, he said. But some communications markets, especially the wireline segment, will remain soft for the remainder of 2002, he added.
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