The first prediction of the year comes from Prudential Securities Inc., which estimates that Intel's total capital expenditures could jump from $5.5 billion in 2002, to $5.6-to-$6.5 billion in 2003.

In January, Intel set its capital spending for 2002 at $5.5 billion, down 24% from a record $7.3 billion in 2001 (see Jan. 15 story ). But still, Intel's 2002 spending is more than two times the nearest company in the IC industry. In fact, there are fewer chip makers in the $1 billion capex club this year (see April 19 story ).

Intel, according to Prudential Securities, is expected to realize worldwide sales of $31.5-to-$36.6 billion for 2003. Based on those estimates, the company's "2003 capex could be $5.6-to-$6.5 billion," according to Prudential in an e-mail newsletter, which was sent today.

The capital spending figure could go even higher, based on Intel's aggressive efforts to develop 90-nm (0.090-micron) technology. "In our estimate, actual tool spending in 2003 could be up 30-50% year-over-year," the report said. "2003 is scheduled to be the year of aggressive 90-nm technology investment," it added.

Intel is also moving full speed ahead in 300-mm. This week, it announced plans to "restart" the construction of its 300-mm wafer fab project in Ireland after several delays with the $2.2 billion plant.

The so-called Fab 24 plant in Leixlip represents Intel's firsthigh-volume fab that will produce chips, based on 90-nm technology. When the new facility is completed in 2004, the company will have four 300-mm wafer fabrication facilities in operation (see April 25 story ).

During an analyst meeting here on Thursday, Intel executives said the shift towards 300-mm wafer manufacturing would lower its overall IC production costs by 25% or more.

At the event, the company also refuted claims made by rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. in the chip-manufacturing arena. For some time, AMD has publicly stated that its chip-manufacturing costs are lower than Intel's.

AMD also claims that the die-size of its Althon family of microprocessors are smaller than Intel's Pentium 4 chips. This is said to give AMD an advantage in terms of overall chip-manufacturing costs, according to the Sunnyvale, Calif.-based company.

Recently, AMD turned up the heat when it rolled out its first products, based on 130-nm (0.13-micron) technology--a line of processors for notebook computers. AMD claims that its 0.13-micron processors are 83% smaller in terms of die size over Intel's chips.

And AMD has also dropped hints that it can build these chips in cost-effective 200-mm fabs, as opposed to Intel, which is ramping up its devices in more expensive 300-mm fabs.

During a Webcast event this week, Intel refuted those and other claims made by AMD. "Don't believe a word that Intel has a cost problem," stated Intel CFO Andy Bryant.

Bryant said he was suspicious of companies that only talk about "smaller die sizes." In fact, the die-size issue is only part of the equation in chip-manufacturing costs, he said. "I want to see the total yields for a finished product," he said.