SAN JOSE--Don't look for a "spectacular" year in 2003, but the worldwide semiconductor market is projected to grow 18.1% next year over 2002, according to a new forecast from In-Stat/MDR here today.
In total, the worldwide IC market is projected to hit $139.1 billion in 2002, up a mere 0.1% over 2001, according to In-Stat. But the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based market research firm is looking for the IC market to reach $164.2 billion in 2003, up 18.1% over 2002.
Analysts, however, believe that there is little or no reason to celebrate in spite of the positive forecast in 2003. "I do not feel that 2003 will be a spectacular growth year," said Christie Van Gaal, who tracks the IC market for In-Stat, during a presentation at the Microprocessor Forum here today.
And like other forecasters in the semiconductor industry, Van Gaal believes that worldwide IC market will not show substantial growth at least until the second half of 2003.
There is some good news on the horizon, however. In 2004, the worldwide IC market is expected to hit $214.3 billion, a 35% growth rate over 2003, she said. And in 2005, the market will reach $242.2 billion, she added.
On the other hand, there are still some mixed signals. Worldwide electronic product consumption hit $1.18 trillion in 2001, but that figure will fall 2% in 2002, according to In-Stat. In 2003, however, worldwide electronic product consumption will hit $1.189 trillion, up 3% over 2002, In-Stat said.
Both the consumer and automotive markets remain strong. And the worldwide handset market is expected to grow from $5.8 billion in terms of revenues for 2001, to $6 billion in 2002, to $6.9 billion in 2003, to $8.7 billion in 2003, In-Stat said.
The computer market is flat, but wireline industry is still in the tank. Revenue for WAN equipment, for example, is expected to fall 14% in 2002 and will contract another 7% in 2003, In-Stat said.
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