SAN JOSE--There are still no apparent "killer applications" that will jumpstart the slumping IC market, but that could be a blessing in disguise in order to sustain a more moderate and manageable recovery in 2003, according to a report from Future Horizons.
Future Horizons also reiterated its bullish growth forecast, saying the IC market will grow by 26.6% in 2003 over 2002, with a spread somewhere between 17-35%. In July, the Kent, U.K.-based market research house gave a somewhat identical forecast (see July 26 story ).
The new report, which was released this week, also believes that IC unit growth will jump 14.3% in 2003 over 2002, while average selling prices (ASPs) will finally bounce back and increase by 11.3% next year.
"We remain convinced that there will be strong growth in 2003, driven by a gradual improvement in unit growth and gradually increasing fab utilization levels," declared Malcolm Penn, chairman and CEO of Future Horizons, in the report.
The report also states that 2003 will be the "turning point to the IC supply/demand balance" equation in the chip market--with shortages of leading-edge fab capacity looming on the horizon. Shortages of 0.18-micron and below capacity could engulf the industry by mid-2003, when overall fab-utilization levels hit the 90% range.
But don't look for the traditional "rags to riches" cycle in 2003--much like what occurred in the 1999-to-2000 time frame. At the time, the IC industry surged for most of 2000, but then experienced the brunt of the "boom to bust" cycle by the end of that year. And in 2001, the so-called "killer application" industries--including telecom and the "dot.coms"--crashed and burned, contributing to the current and severe market woes.
Some believe the IC recovery will depend upon a crop of new and bold product innovations, although many experts do not see a so-called "killer application" coming on the horizon. "There are no new products out there," said one manager at Philips Semiconductors. "So, we don't see a recovery until mid-2004."
Future Horizon's agreed--at least to some extent. "We see no product or sector--the so-called killer application syndrome--driving the recovery, just a collective combination of overall improved demand," the report said.
"In some cases, we see this as a much healthier situation and should lead to a more sustainable recovery," the report said. "We would also caution that just because we cannot see the next killer application now, this does not mean to say it is already there in place."
RSS
Digital
10 emerging technologies to watch:
EE Times has compiled a list of emerging technologies that we think will be worth watching out for in 2010. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics are among the contenders.
Hot applications in 2010:
We've compiled a list of 10 technology applications you should watch for in 2010, ranging from e-book readers to 3-D TVs. We examine the features that make these apps so compelling as well unresolved issues.
Top 25 predictions for semis in 2010:
2010 is just beginning to unfold in the electronics industry. Looking into our crystal ball, we have released our own chip forecasts--and other predictions--for 2010.
Seven things to fix in 2010:
The editors of EE Times came up with their own informal list of things we hope engineers fix in 2010, spanning everything from nano-lithography to space travel. What do you want to see get done this year?
'09 moves that are shaping the future:
This was a brutal year, but the industry gets a nod for showing grace under fire. Here's our Top 10 guide to the coming year, illustrating what to expect in 2010.
10 CEOs out in 2009:
It's been a tough year for the global electronics industry and CEOs. We survey the dismissal of 10 industry CEOs during the first three quarters of 2009 and what's ahead for the rest of the year.
Notable women in microelectronics:
There is no better time than a global economic recession to examine the keys to successful corporate governance. So, EE Times has compiled an international list that celebrates women who are business and technology leaders in semis.
EE Times updates Silicon 60:
Seventeen companies have been added to the lastest version of our Silicon 60 list of emerging startups. Forty-three companies survived as emerging companies that are still worth watching.
RSS| 
Digital| 
Mobile
