SEVENOAKS, England -- The the 2003 semiconductor market will grow 15% to 16% compared with 2002 according to market research consultancy Future Horizons, which has made the prediction in its December semiconductor industry update newsletter.
Although such growth would be slightly better than the industry's long-term average annual growth, this is a significant downgrading of the market's predicted value by Future Horizons. As recently as November Future Horizons was repeating a mid-2002 bullish growth forecast, saying the IC market would grow by 26.6% in 2003 over 2002, with a spread somewhere between 17-35% (see November 1 story).
As uncertainty and mixed news swirls about the industry, the date for a semiconductor recovery continues to get pushed back; the "when" of it having an increasing impact on the annual growth that will be recorded in 2003.
Back in November, Malcolm Penn, chairman and chief executive officer of Future Horizons, said: "We remain convinced that there will be strong growth in 2003, driven by a gradual improvement in unit growth and gradually increasing fab utilization levels." Future Horizon's December Semiconductor update left the question of when that strong growth would start more open.
"The answer to this is when fab capacity comes back into balance, i.e. when the overall average utilization rate passes the 90% level. Right now this looks like the April, May timeframe and will result in an estimated 15% to 16% value growth in the semiconductor market for 2003. As for 2004, growth in the order of 30% plus is certainly not unrealistic; driven by price increases and strong unit demand," according to the December report.
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