SAN JOSE--After a two-year slump due to the downturn, the semiconductor and chip-equipment markets are expected to show modest 20% and 9% growth, respectively, in 2003 over 2002, according to a new forecast from VLSI Research Inc.
The chip and fab-tool markets are expected to pick up in the second half of 2003, but there are signs that the recovery will begin in the first part of next year, said analyst Risto Puhakka of VLSI Research, based in San Jose.
"The economy has been doing pretty well," Puhakka said. "We think the semiconductor and fab-tool markets are starting to look better."
In 2002, however, it's been another tough year for IC and fab-tool providers. Originally, VSLI Research projected that the semiconductor market would grow 20% in 2002 over 2001. Now, the market research firm projects only 3-5% growth for this year.
What will drive 20% growth forecast in '03? Wireless. "Anything to do with wireless is selling one way or another," Puhakka said. "We are not bullish on PCs, but we will see some growth."
There are also positive signs for chip-equipment makers, which have been hit hard by a severe downturn for about two years. In 2001, this market fell by a staggering 34% over 2000, according to VLSI Research.
The chip-equipment market is expected to fall by 24% in 2002, but projected to grow by 9% in 2003 and 25% in 2004, it said. "We've been bouncing along the bottom for a long time," he said. "We should see a modest recovery in 2003."
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