The annual survey, released today (April 3) by the Fabless Semiconductor Association, also shows respondents believing that the chip industry will begin to pull out of its current slump in the third quarter of 2001. However, the expected timeframe for a recovery now appears to be three to six months later, according to the FSA.

"We believe that fabless companies have very little visibility, so we plan to conduct this survey again in a few months, once companies have a handle on the second quarter," said Jodi Shelton, executive director of the FSA.

The move to conduct a second survey of fabless chip companies underscores just how difficult the current downturn has been on industry forecasts. Most chip executives and foundry suppliers openly admit that there is no clear sign of a recovery ahead and few are certain when the recession will end.

While the FSA plans to poll fabless chip companies again, the February survey still shows a number of key trends in wafer processing technologies and chip-packaging services, according to Shelton, who is based in Dallas.

For example, the annual 2001 survey underscores the clout of the Big Three pure-play foundries--Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC), United Microelectronics Corp. (UMC), and Chartered Semiconductor Manufacturing. These three silicon foundries will collectively produce more than 75% of the wafers used by fabless chip companies in 2001, according to the results of the February survey.

The 2001 survey also shows strong growth in demand for leading-edge chip processing technologies. The survey shows that 79% of the wafers processed for fabless chip companies will have 0.25-micron and below feature sizes by 2002. Last year, only 40% of the wafers used by fabless chip companies were fabricated with quarter-micron and below processes, while 66% of the wafers are expected to be fabricated with this class of technology in 2001, according to the FSA survey.

The annual survey also shows three chip-packaging types accounting for 95% of the requirements at fabless chip houses. These are plastic dual in-line packages (PDIPs), various outline packages (xSOPs), and quad flat packs (QFPs). Over the next few years, plastic DIPs will be used for 27% of products sold by fabless semiconductor companies, while QFP packages will represent 48% of the chips, according to the FSA survey.

The survey also shows strong growth in wafer probe services, chip packaging, and testing by third-party contractors outside of the silicon foundries. For example, 80% of the survey respondents said they used third-party wafer-probe services last year, but 95% expect to be using contractors for wafer probing in 2002. About 99% of the respondents said they expect to use chip-packaging services in 2002, up from 94% in 2000. The use of chip-testing services will grow from 85% of the companies in 2000 to 90% of the fabless semiconductor suppliers in 2002, said the survey.