FRAMINGHAM, Mass. -- Here's more bad news for the electronics industry: the PC industry is not only slowing but falling in terms of unit shipments in the United States, according to a new forecast by International Data Corp. The research firm today cut its forecast for the worldwide and U.S. shipments, and it is now predicting that unit shipments will fall for the first time ever in the United States (see table below).
IDC originally predicted that the U.S. personal computer market would grow 2.2%, in terms of unit shipments in 2001 compared to last year. But declaring that the U.S. economy is now in a "recession," IDC said it believes U.S. PC shipments will fall 6.3% to 45.3 million systems in 2001 from 48.4 million in 2000.
During 2002, the market will remain sluggish, warned IDC, which now expects PC volumes in the United States to reach 47.4 million, up by just 4.6% from shipments in 2001.
Blaming weakness in the U.S. market, IDC said worldwide PC shipments will grow 5.8% to 138.9 million systems in 2001 from 131.3 million in 2000. IDC said it is now forecasting that PC shipments will grow 12.2% to 155.9 million units worldwide in 2002.
"While we believe that the shape of the seasonal pattern will be normal, the year-end uplift will not be as buoyant as is typical at that time of year, " said IDC analyst Roger Kay. "Consumers have still not emerged from the shell they crawled into late last year," Kay said.
The U.S. PC market is especially gloomy. Consumer PC shipments in the United States dropped by 26.4% in the first quarter of 2001, compared to the like period a year ago, according to IDC.
U.S. consumer sales for PCs are now expected to fall by 17.3% in 2001, while the U.S. commercial segment will be flat in 2001 with a growth rate of only 0.6%, they added.
PC shipment growth is also expected to decline somewhat outside the United States. PC growth outside the United States will be 12.9% for 2001, down from a previous forecast of 15.1%, bringing worldwide growth for the year down to 5.8%.
Growth outside the United States is expected to rise to 16% in 2002, with worldwide growth of 12.2%.
Factors contributing to slower growth outside the United States include falling consumer spending in Western Europe and declining growth in Asian markets.
"With the United States clearly in the tank right now, the question is to what extent Europe and Asia will follow," said Loren Loverde, who tracks the market for IDC.
"The commercial segment in Western Europe is showing some promise, but the consumer segment looks more shaky. The heavily export-dependent countries in Asia could also be vulnerable to the U.S. slowdown, although low penetration rates in many countries leaves room for double-digit growth for the foreseeable future," the IDC analyst said.
PC shipments remain flat for next two years
| Market segment |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
| United States |
45.1 million |
48.4 million |
45.3 million |
47.4 million |
54.1 million |
58.2 million |
60.8 million |
| Worldwide |
113.6 million |
131.3 million |
138.9 million |
155.9 million |
178.1 million |
197.2 million |
215.5 million |
| Source: IDC |
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