GRAZ, Austria -- A weak semiconductor recovery in 2002 will be led by analog ICs and "micro components"--such as processors, microcontrollers, and microperipherals--while memories, bipolar digital devices and discretes will continue to languish next year, according to a new chip industry consensus forecast issued this week.
The forecast, issued by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization here, shows chip revenues inching up by 2.6% to $142.38 billion in 2002 from $138.82 billion in 2001--the industry's worst recession year in history. The weak recovery year will be followed by stronger growth in 2003 and 2004 with industry revenues growing 18.5% and 15.1%, respectively, according to the WSTS market forecast.
Total integrated circuit sales will grow 3.3% after collapsing by 33.4% in 2001. Sensor devices--such as imagers used in digital cameras and other components--have been the only device type to escape the severe 2001 downturn without shrinking, according to the WSTS forecast. Even optoelectronics--last year's darling with 69.7% growth from 1999 revenues--took 2001 on the chin with a 20.4% drop in revenues as high-speed communications networks stalled out (see table below for chip segment summary).
Memory revenues--still being undermined by too much capacity in DRAMs and falling average selling prices--will end up shrinking 49.4% in 2001 and drop another 2.6% in 2002. The long-term trend of falling revenues for bipolar digital ICs was accelerated in 2001 with sales plunging 53.3% to just $498.8 million from $1.07 billion in 2000, the WSTS forecast said. With CMOS chomping away at the segment, bipolar ICs will continue its slide next year, dropping 26.5%, the report said.
The WSTS forecast also shows Asia Pacific pacing the next recovery cycle with chip revenues growing 12.4% to $44.13 billion in 2002 from $39.27 billion in 2001. The region, which includes China, is the only region to show growth in 2002, with the others--Americas, Japan, and Europe--all being flat-to-down slightly next year (see Oct. 25 story and table of regional sales).
Representatives from more than 30 chip companies worldwide drafted the new chip industry consensus outlook during WSTS's annual forecasting session in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, during meetings on Oct. 9-12. The group's forecast is used by other trade organizations worldwide--such as the U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association--to formulate their own forecasts for release in various regional markets. San Jose-based SIA is scheduled to release its annual fall forecast on Nov. 7.
WSTS Forecast by Chip Segments
| Category |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| Discretes |
$16.92 billion
(+29.5%) |
$12.24 billion
(-27.7%) |
$11.51 billion
(-6.0%) |
| Optoelectronics |
$9.80 billion
(+69.7%) |
$7.80 billion
(-20.4%) |
$7.96 billion
(+2.0%) |
| Sensors |
$721 million
(+130.5%) |
$927.3 million
(+28.6%) |
$1.16 billion
(+25.3%) |
| All ICs |
$176.95 billion
(+35.9%) |
$117.85 billion
(-33.4%) |
$121.74 billion
(+3.3%) |
| Bipolar digital |
$1.07 billion
(+7.9%) |
$499 million
(-53.3%) |
$367 million
(-26.5%) |
| Analog ICs |
$30.52 billion
(+38.2%) |
$22.89 billion
(-25.0%) |
$23.81 billion
(+4.0%) |
| Micro |
$61.55 billion
(+19.0%) |
$44.96 billion
(-26.9%) |
$48.30 billion
(+7.4%) |
| MOS logic |
$34.59 billion
(+49.3%) |
$24.59 billion
(-28.9%) |
$25.02 billion
(+1.8%) |
| Memory |
$49.23 billion
(+52.5%) |
$24.91 billion
(-49.4%) |
$24.26 billion
(-2.6%) |
| Total semiconductors |
$204.39 billion
(+36.8% |
$138.82 billion
(-32.1%) |
$142.38 billion
(+2.6%) |
Source: WSTS Autumn 2001 Forecast
*(Percentage in parenthesis shows change from previous year) |
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