SAN FRANCISCO -- The troubled semiconductor-equipment industry is expected to show some improvements over the next year, but the market will still decline from 8-13% in 2002 over 2001, according to a new forecast from Dataquest Inc.
At the same time, the blank silicon wafer industry is projected to show flat growth in 2002, after a sharp decline in 2001, according to projections from the San Jose-based market research firm.
The new forecast indicates that the current downturn in the chip-equipment and silicon wafer markets have finally hit the bottom--with a recovery due in the second half of 2002, said Klaus-Dieter Rinnen, who tracks the market for Dataquest.
"The semiconductor-equipment market will gain momentum in the second half of 2002," Rinnen said during a presentation at the Gartner Dataquest Semiconductors 2001 conference last Friday in San Francisco.
Rinnen also indicated that the back-end equipment and silicon wafers markets will rebound to some degree and show flat growth in 2002, following a sharp downturn in these segments in 2001. The front-end equipment market will also show some improvements in 2002, as compared to 2001, he added.
There is also some bad news as well. Worldwide capital spending among chip makers will fall 17-25% in 2002 over 2001, he added. "For 2002, 300-mm equipment spending will stay on a par with this year's spending," he added.
In total, the semiconductor-equipment market is projected to fall between 33-34% in 2001 over 2000, according to Dataquest. In 2002, the market is expected to decline 8% in the most optimistic forecast and fall 13% in the more likely scenario, according to Dataquest.
The front-end chip equipment market is projected to decline by 30% in 2001 over 2000, according to Dataquest. In 2002, this market is expected to fall 10% in the most optimistic forecast and decline by 20% in the more likely scenario, they said.
This market is also supposed to recover in 2003, with 32% growth over 2002, they said. In 2004, Dataquest projects that this business will grow 51% over 2003.
Meanwhile, Dataquest projects that the back-end equipment market will show a 55% decline in 2001 over 2000. In 2002, this market will grow by 9% in the most optimistic forecast and 1% in the more likely scenario, they said. In 2003, the market is projected to show 44% growth over 2002, according to Dataquest.
On the materials front, the silicon wafer industry is projected to decline 29% in 2001 over 2000, according to Dataquest. That business is projected to show zero growth in 2002, but is expected to increase by 23% in 2003, they added.
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