CUPERTINO, Calif.--Details are sketchy, but there could be recovery light at the end of the semiconductor downturn tunnel, based on the slowing of price erosion in DRAMs and improvements in wafer shipments, said Advanced Forecasting Inc. here today.

"For most of 2001, our IC Recovery Index depicted a severe and rapid decline in IC sales, but recently, data points from our IC Recovery Index, Wafer Shipments, and DRAM ASP Forecasts have shown a much slower rate of descent," states David Crume, director of marketing and sales at Advanced Forecasting.

"As with the previous industry recessions of '96 and '98, the position of these data points signals an approaching minimum point and some encouraging news for many companies, especially the hard hit DRAM manufacturers," he said.

For more than a decade, the Cupertino-based research firm has claimed that its quantitative-based forecasting models have accurately predicted turning points in chip markets since the late 1980s, while other analysts have often missed the mark and revised their outlooks. AFI said its IC Recovery Index is a derivative of its long-term forecast model for IC demand.

The research firm said it was "quick to discount signals" from top executives at Intel Corp. and Applied Materials Inc., who "highlighted hopeful expectations of a bottom in Q2 2001 and ensuing recovery in Q3." Advanced Forecasting noted that the recovery did not occur in the third quarter.

And now, Crume said other analysts, who were earlier predicting that boom times would last into 2003, may be overly pessimistic about the coming year. Many forecasters have recently revised their outlooks for 2002 to show flat-to-slight growth in chip revenues. Advanced Forecasting did not issue an estimate for 2002 growth.

Advanced Forecasting maintained that it has not changed its outlook since the start of 2001, and it continues to predict that IC revenues will reach a bottom in the current recession in the fourth quarter this year.

"As we measure the economic factors, the events of Sept. 11th seem to have a relatively limited impact on the outcome of our quantitative models," said Crume, who added that the minimum point could possibly be delayed though his firm is encouraged by what these quantitative models are depicting.

Advanced Forecasting said it has relied on quantitative-based models during the past 15 years to decipher the timing of the minimum point and the following post recession growth for the IC and related industries.