PHOENIX -- Don't look now but a semiconductor recovery may already be underway, according to Semico Research Corp. here, which believes analysis of October sales data shows evidence of a rebound occurring this fall.
Last month, Semico Research said increases in average selling prices for ICs in September and steady unit growth were setting the stage for a recovery and potentially strong increases in chip sales next year (see Nov. 16 story). But now the Phoenix-based research firm believes October sales data from the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) indicates that a solid recovery may already be underway.
Semico said it has now set its forecast for semiconductor growth in 2002 at 20%. Its forecast is more bullish than estimates from other research firms, which are generally calling for slight growth in chip revenues next year, in the range of 1-to-6% from 2001. Most industry estimates show chip revenues plunging 32-to-35% in the 2001 downturn.
But Semico today said it is now detecting stronger-than-expected growth in the final months of 2001 after analyzing the typical "saw-tooth pattern" of monthly semiconductor sales.
The research firm noted that chip revenues in the first month of a calendar quarter usually drop from the last month in the prior quarter. The second or middle month in a quarter will often show a slight rise in sales from the first month. The third month in a quarter usually has a significant increase in revenues from the second month in the quarter, said Semico, which added that the saw-tooth pattern is well know but it often obscures trends.
So, Semico removed the saw-tooth effect and compared the first months of each quarter for the past two years. Semiconductor sales in the first month of each quarter increased from January 2000 to October 2000, and then a decline began, lasting until July 2001. But, October sales increased compared to July, hinting that a recovery may have begun, said Semico.
The research firm said some semiconductor product types--such as flash memories, standard cell ICs, micrologic, and analog devices--showed first-month to first-month increases in October over July, while other segments do not. Analog semiconductors have often been a leading indicator of market conditions, noted Semico.
The research firm said it remains confident that its 20% growth forecast for total semiconductor sales in 2002 is on track.
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