SAN JOSE -- It appears semiconductor companies worldwide are slightly more optimistic about chip growth in 2000 than U.S. chip suppliers. That's one conclusion that could be drawn from a comparison of new forecasts from the U.S.-based Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) and the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group.
Last week, the SIA released its U.S. consensus forecast, which shows global semiconductor growth at 37.1% in 2000 and 21.8% in 2001 (see Nov. 1 story). The new WSTS outlook--created with inputs from 43 companies worldwide, including the U.S.--shows 39.2% growth in 2000, followed by a 20.3% increase in 2001.
The SIA forecast predicts industry chip sales will reach $204.8 billion worldwide in 2000 vs. the WSTS's forecast of $207.9 billion--a $3.1 billion difference. Meanwhile, the SIA predicts that chip sales will reach $249.5 billion in 2001, while WSTS says revenues will be at $250.0 billion next year.
Until recent years, the SIA has used the WSTS forecast as its own outlook. However in the late 1990s, the U.S. trade group opted to modify the WSTS outlook to reflects the consensus of its North American members. The new WSTS forecast was reached during an industry meeting in Hawaii (Oct. 17-20). About 70 representatives from 43 semiconductor companies worldwide--including North America--attended the WSTS forecasting meeting.
The WSTS forecast shows that the second-half growth in chip sales this year will be 19% higher than in the first six months of 2000. The WSTS organization also predicts that semiconductor sales worldwide will increase at a 19.7% compound annual growth rare (CAGR) between 2000 and 2003. The growth rate will slow to 13.8% between 2001 and 2003, said the trade group.
Below is a comparison of the WSTS and SIA forecasts.
How WSTS outlook compares to SIA forecast
| Region |
1999 |
WSTS 2000 |
SIA 2000 |
WSTS 2001 |
SIA 2001 |
| Americas |
$47.5 billion |
$64.8 billion (+36.4%) |
$63.6 billion (+33.9%) |
$77.2 billion (+19.1%) |
$76.8 billion (+20.9%) |
| Asia Pacific |
$37.2 billion |
$53.3 billion (+43.3%) |
$52.3 billion (+40.8%) |
$65.2 billion (+22.3%) |
$64.8 billion (+23.7%) |
| Japan |
$32.8 billion |
$46.9 billion (+43.0%) |
$46.5 billion (+41.5%) |
$56.2 billion (+19.8%) |
$56.5 billion (+21.6%) |
| Europe |
$31.9 billion |
$42.9 billion (+34.5%) |
$42.4 billion (+33.0%) |
$51.4 billion (+19.8%) |
$51.4 billion (+21.2%) |
| Total |
$149.4 billion |
$207.9 billion (+39.2%) |
$204.8 billion (+37.1%) |
$250.0 billion (+20.3%) |
$249.5 billion (+21.8%) |
| WTST & SIA forecasts |
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