TOKYO -- A new consensus forecast from suppliers of chip-making equipment and materials shows spending on semiconductor capacity growing 22.3% to $57.2 billion in 2001 after an 83.4% increase to $46.7 billion in 2000.
The forecast, released during this week's Semicon Japan trade show here, shows worldwide suppliers are still optimistic about 2001 despite new projections by some analysts, who have cut their growth estimates below 10% next year (see Dec. 1 story).
"After what has been the best year ever for the semiconductor equipment industry, confidence remains high among capital equipment companies that strong growth will continue into 2001," said Stanley T. Myers, president and CEO of the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group. SEMI released the consensus forecast at the opening of its Semicon Japan show on Tuesday, calling for a gradual slowdown--or "soft landing"--in capital spending through 2003.
"While we have seen moderation of growth in recent months, new manufacturing technologies including 300-mm and advanced sub-micron processes are expected to drive equipment orders through 2001," Myers added.
Data for SEMI's year-end forecast was collected worldwide from suppliers in October and November. It shows member companies expecting chip equipment revenues to grow 12.3% to $64.2 billion in 2002, followed by a 7.7% growth to $69.1 billion in 2003. The results of the survey indicate that SEMI member companies do not believe the equipment industry will repeat a major downturn similar to the recession of 1998.
The new SEMI Consensus Forecast also shows suppliers expecting Taiwan to continue being the strongest growth market for chip production tools in 2001 with a growth of 27.2% to $12.4 billion from $9.8 billion in 2000. North American equipment growth was pegged at 20% to $14.6 billion in 2001 from $12.2 billion in 2000, and Japan was placed at 16.7% growth to $10.3 billion next year from $8.9 billion this year.
The SEMI forecast shows semiconductor equipment sales growing 21.3% in Europe to $7.5 billion from $6.2 billion in 2000. In Korea, tool shipments are expected to grow 22.8% to $4.9 billion next year from $4.0 billion in 2000.
SEMI outlook by equipment segments
| Tool type |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
| Wafer processing |
$16.8 billion |
$31.2 billion (+85.6%) |
$38.7 billion (+24.1%) |
$42.9 billion (+10.8%) |
$45.8 billion (+6.9%) |
| Other frontend systems* |
$1.5 billion |
$2.4 billion (+59.7%) |
$2.9 billion (+18.9%) |
$3.3 billion (+15.4%) |
$3.7 billion (+9.8%) |
| Assembly & packaging |
$2.0 billion |
$3.8 billion (+90.2%) |
$4.7 billion (+23.6%) |
$5.5 billion (+17.5%) |
$5.9 billion (+6.8%) |
| Test |
$5.2 billion |
$9.3 billion (+80.4%) |
$10.9 billion (+16.6%) |
$12.4 billion (+14.4%) |
$13.7 billion (+10.5%) |
| Total |
$25.5 billion |
$46.7 billion (+83.4%) |
$57.2 billion (+22.3%) |
$64.2 billion (+12.3%) |
$69.1 billion (+7.7%) |
SEMI year-end consensus forecast
*Includes photomasks, wafer substrate manufacturing, factory automation systems |
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