VILLACH, Austria — The average electronics content of cars will increase from 22 percent today to 35 percent by 2010, according to projections made at the ISS Europe conference here this past week by Infineon Technologies AG. Reinhard Ploss, head of Infineon's Automotive and Industrial business unit, said the estimates offer hope to the embattled chip industry as it looks for new applications to bootstrap itself out of recession.
In 2001, manufacturers built $134 billion worth of electronic components and devices into vehicles. Infineon sees the figure rising to $289 billion by 2020. Included in that estimate are semiconductors, worth $11.7 billion in 2001 and projected to reach $21.4 billion by 2020.
Software for automotive applications is also expected to grow, reaching as high as $19.2 billion by 2010.
Auto makers would like to increase fuel efficiency along with engine performance, safety and driver comfort. The companies are also working to reduce structural weight, and, thus, decrease cost, by replacing unreliable, failure-prone mechanical and hydraulic components with smart, light, durable electronics.
"The cabling of a midsize car weighs up to 60 kilos in today's construction," Ploss said. "With a bus system, this can be reduced significantly."
Engineers are also looking for opportunities to combine elements that today are separate, such as the starter and generator, into single devices. That saves weight, but it won't work without suitable control electronics.
Future motor control systems might employ microcomputers to calculate and activate optimal opening and closing times for intake and exhaust valves, eliminating the need for camshafts. Such electronics would optimize fuel consumption and minimize exhaust emissions. The systems' real-time computers would need to provide about 20-Mips computing power per cylinder, Ploss said.
In terms of automotive design, control electronics that currently are located near the components they control — ABS systems placed near the brakes, for example — might be moved in future designs to a central box, Ploss said.
The Infineon manager also said he expects innovations through the introduction of such "by wire" systems as brake-by-wire and electronic steering.
Although the envisioned systems all would need more electrical energy than current 12-volt sources deliver, the projections assume that a 42-V on-board network will emerge in a few years.
Industry executives cited the combination of infotainment and telematics as another source of growth, although they acknowledged that appropriate business models are still lacking. Also on the horizon are accident-avoidance sensors and heads-up displays.
Christoph Hammerschmidt is editor in chief of the Web site EETimes.de.
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