MUNICH, Germany —As if the current downturn weren't challenging enough, the semiconductor industry is also headed for increasing challenges from higher design costs and production at smaller geometries, according to Aart de Geus, chairman and CEO of Synopsys Inc.
The cost of designs is going up because of increasing costs for embedded software development and verification, both of which will grow disproportionately fast, de Geus said in a presentation at the GSA & IET Semiconductor Forum here Wednesday (June 3).
But de Geus noted that every crisis presents its own opportunities and said that the current economic recession is no different.
"There have been fundamental shifts after any crisis," de Geus said. "Looking forward, we can predict that there will be some shifts after the current crisis as well."
Predicting a gradual recovery for the semiconductor industry, de Geus said most experts agree that there will be a kind of plateau at some 20 percent below 2007 revenue levels. After that, revenue will begin to rise gradually, he said, but will be subject to prevalent economic conditions.
"This is not a high-tech crisis, this is a global economic crisis," de Geus said.
De Geus said crises accelerate trends, with companies under stress driving changes, something he said is occurring now at every level. He joked that a good rule for management is to "never let go a good crisis unused."
De Geus elaborated on the verification issue and associated costs. "I cannot overstate how big an issue this is," de Geus said. He added that the verification problem is growing in a completely non-linear way, similar to the way the complexity of issues such as power, timing closure and getting to tape-out began taking off 10 years ago.
Faster verification would be one of three items on a chip designer's wish list, according to de Gues. The others would be better integration between EDA tools and the adoption of complete, structured design flows, he said.
According to de Geus, crises also bring the necessity to differentiate from competitors. Companies under pressure will move to offer products more chiefly and sooner than competitors, he said. "And, by the way, not everything that is difficult leads to a differentiation," de Geus added.
After exhausting new options to lower prices, vendors will naturally assess other options, including exploration of new ideas to create products, de Geus said.
Once a company figures out a way to differentiate its products from others, everything becomes about time-to-market, de Geus said. This is where EDA tools can make the greatest impact since they greatly determine the speed of a design, de Geus said.
Citing a current example, de Geus said the intersection of the PC, netbook and phone is happening now and that there will be a sub-$100 netbook in China by this summer produced by a vendor who sees it as their chance to differentiate.
"There is no debate — this train already has left the station," de Geus said.
Related articles and links
Medical, home applications to drive mobile growth
Analog expertise dwindling in Europe, panel says
Software system speeds up process development
RSS
Digital
10 emerging technologies to watch:
EE Times has compiled a list of emerging technologies that we think will be worth watching out for in 2010. Biofeedback or thought-control of electronics are among the contenders.
Hot applications in 2010:
We've compiled a list of 10 technology applications you should watch for in 2010, ranging from e-book readers to 3-D TVs. We examine the features that make these apps so compelling as well unresolved issues.
Top 25 predictions for semis in 2010:
2010 is just beginning to unfold in the electronics industry. Looking into our crystal ball, we have released our own chip forecasts--and other predictions--for 2010.
Seven things to fix in 2010:
The editors of EE Times came up with their own informal list of things we hope engineers fix in 2010, spanning everything from nano-lithography to space travel. What do you want to see get done this year?
'09 moves that are shaping the future:
This was a brutal year, but the industry gets a nod for showing grace under fire. Here's our Top 10 guide to the coming year, illustrating what to expect in 2010.
10 CEOs out in 2009:
It's been a tough year for the global electronics industry and CEOs. We survey the dismissal of 10 industry CEOs during the first three quarters of 2009 and what's ahead for the rest of the year.
Notable women in microelectronics:
There is no better time than a global economic recession to examine the keys to successful corporate governance. So, EE Times has compiled an international list that celebrates women who are business and technology leaders in semis.
EE Times updates Silicon 60:
Seventeen companies have been added to the lastest version of our Silicon 60 list of emerging startups. Forty-three companies survived as emerging companies that are still worth watching.
RSS| 
Digital| 
Mobile
