LONDON — Global sales of semiconductors are expected to fall by 21.6 percent to $194.8 billion this year, according to revised figures from the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization, who also suggest an increase next year in shipments to $209 billion, representing growth of 7.3 percent.
The WSTS had last November expected only a 2.8 percent decline for 2009.
The projected 21.6 percent dive in 2009 would mark the first consecutive-year negative growth of the semiconductor market since 1984, when WSTS began compiling such data.
"The WSTS foresees a continued growth in demand for electronic products such as PCs, digital consumer appliances, mobile communications, and last but not least automotive electronics, enhanced by increase of semiconductor content per installed system," said Dr. Ulrich Schaefer, Worldwide Chairman of WSTS.
The organization expects the bottom of the current cycle to be in the first half of 2009. WSTS is also bullish about the prospects for longer term growth, anticipating chip sales to reach $227.5 billion in 2011, representing growth of 8.9 percent.
This, however, still does not match the $248.6 billion worth of shipments achieved in 2008.
In terms of geographic breakdown, the WSTS expects the Asia Pacific region to continue to be the fastest growing area, growing at 8.2 percent in 2010 to reach sales of $107.6 billion. The slowest growth for the same period is seen for the Americas, by just 5.9 percent to reach $34.2 billion.
Europe should see a 6.3 percent increase in shipments next year, to $30.1 billion, the corresponding figures for Japan being 6.9 percent and $37 billion.
Last month, long-time analyst of semiconductor market statistics Mike Cowan also revised his 2009 semiconductor annual market estimate to $183.99 billion, equivalent to a market contraction of 26 percent, a slight improvement on his previous forecast that year-on-year decline in shipments would be 26.8 percent.
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