SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Research firm Gartner Inc. Thursday (June 11) reiterated its gloomy IC forecast for 2009, saying that consumer demand has not returned in the market.
The IC market is projected to contract 22.4 percent in 2009, according to Gartner. This new outlook is slightly better than the first quarter projection, when it said chip revenue would decline 24.1 percent in 2009.
Besides providing the forecast at an event here, Peter Middleton, principal analyst at Gartner (Stamford, Conn.), also drew seven conclusions about the current state of the semiconductor industry.
1. Semiconductor revenues will increase sequentially.
''Industry revenues in Q1 were slightly better than expected. We had expected (a decline of minus) 17 percent quarter-over-quarter, but it came in at minus 15.7 percent or slightly better. We had forecast minus 1 percent for Q2, but it will actually be up 4.9 percent quarter-over-quarter, according to vendor guidance. Big companies such as Intel, TSMC and others reported seeing strong bookings but these tended to be in selected markets. The 3G cellular build-out and the PC sector (have) strengthened.''
2. Most IC demand is from inventory restocking.
''We've seen minimal evidence that electronic equipment demand is clearly returning. There is lots of evidence that China is running strong but in other regions of the world we've seen very little evidence. So our conclusion is that the majority of the projected growth in the near-term is inventory replenishment.''
3. Minimal evidence that demand is returning except in China.
''What will happen in the second half? Consumer spending we believe will remain fairly depressed due to: high unemployment, falling housing prices and still low consumer confidence.''
4. Auto and consumer remain hardest hit markets in 2009.
''In 2009, we expect the worst performing category to be automotive. Consumer electronics will also perform badly. Consumer credit and spending will remain stifled.''
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