Current fab utilization rates are running at about 40% for foundries and 70% for integrated device manufacturers, said Len Jelinek, an analyst at iSuppli Corp., El Segundo, Calif. "There's great reluctance by a lot of IDMs to shut down factories," he said. "They're running factories high to cover costs."

With the glut of capacity that came on line in 2000, and the forecast of additional capacity next year, Jelinek doesn't expect to see a recovery in fab utilization rates for memory products until 2003. At that time, fabs will be running at about 95% of capacity, he predicted.

In the meantime, buyers should expect to see more of the bargains they've grown accustomed to. Spot prices for some versions of 128Mbit SDRAMs, for example, are still hovering at about $2.

"There is too much capacity," said Sherry Garber, an analyst at Semico Research Corp., Phoenix. "The demand for 64Mbit is just gone. That's one of the densities where there appears to be a lot of inventory, both at the DRAM vendors and some OEM sites."

The fab shutdowns disclosed in recent weeks have generally involved older technologies that will be replaced with output from upgraded lines. Citing low demand for its memory products, Toshiba America Electronic Components Inc. last week announced plans to close production in September at its Yokkaichi Operations Fab 1, which includes a 0.20-micron line for DRAMs.

The company, which ranks fifth in DRAM sales, will transfer 300 employees to another line at its Fab 2, where 0.175-micron processes will be used to manufacture 256Mbit DRAM, said Jamie Stitt, director of DRAM products at TAEC, Irvine, Calif. Fab 1 currently makes about 7 million 64Mbit-equivalent DRAMs a month, he said.

"From a financial perspective, we didn't think it was worthwhile to use the 0.2-micron line," Stitt said. "We have successfully transitioned our customers to the 0.175-micron program, so we'll have no legacy obligations."

Last month, Hynix Semiconductor Inc.-the industry's No. 3 DRAM maker-closed its fab in Eugene, Ore., for six months and laid off 600 employees due to eroding DRAM prices. During the shutdown, Hynix said it will upgrade the plant from a 0.22-micron process making 64Mbit SDRAM to a new 0.13-micron process able to produce 256Mbit chips.

In July, NEC Corp. said by 2004 it will shift control of its DRAM production at a Hiroshima, Japan, fab to Elpida Memory Inc., a joint venture with Hitachi Ltd. The fab currently acts as a DRAM foundry for Elpida, but NEC executives said they want to abandon all DRAM production within three years.

As with the other temporary cutbacks, NEC's move isn't expected to reduce supply levels significantly because the business will have migrated to Elpida's factories by then, said Jim Sogas, vice president of North American sales at Elpida, Santa Clara, Calif.

"Everybody is expecting or needing to see the supply cut back to line up with demand," he said. "It's just hard. People don't like to make one-sided cuts in output because they can lose market share."

Indeed, NEC's decision basically moves production to Elpida, while Toshiba and Hynix are merely shifting to smaller line geometries, Garber said, which eventually will yield even more DRAM per silicon wafer. Representatives for Samsung and Micron-No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in DRAM sales in 2000-said neither company plans to cut production in the near future.

The top five suppliers--Samsung, Micron, Hynix, NEC, and Toshiba--garnered 80% of the $27 billion DRAM market in 2000, according to Semico. It would take a move by one of these companies to abandon the sector for the industry to see a price impact from the supply side, Garber said, a move that is unlikely to occur.