SAN FRANCISCO -- Although the semiconductor equipment market is likely to stay soft this year, there are signs that the industry is coming back to life.
While predicting that 2002 semiconductor equipment revenues will be flat-to-down 10% from 2001, strong sequential quarterly growth is expected as chip makers begin to raise their capital spending budgets throughout the year, predicted analyst Sue Billat of Robertson Stephens Inc.
"We believe spring is here and things are getting better," said Billat during a technology investors' conference hosted by Robertson Stephens in San Francisco this week.
Admittedly more optimistic than her peers, Billat said bookings in North America are improving and positive signs are showing up in the assembly and test, lithography and photomask segments. The book-to-bill ratio for North American-based suppliers rose from 0.77 in December to 0.81 in January, with bookings increasing slightly by 1.3% and billings dropping sequentially by 4.3%, according to the SEMI trade group (see Jan. 20 story).
Billat noted that the transition to 300-mm wafer fabs will require additional capital equipment spending as chip makers moved from 200-mm production lines. By the end of this year, eight pilot lines and 11 volume production fabs will be operating with 300-mm technology, she said. Billat estimated that 300-mm fab equipment spending would total $10 billion in 2002, and it is expected to reach $15 billion in 2003.
Despite the early signs of better times, Billat warned investors to closely monitor company revenues and earnings numbers in the wake of new accounting rules, namely SAB 101. The new accounting practice, which has been implemented by companies in the past year, delays the recognition of tool sales from when systems were shipped to final acceptance by the customer. Billat said the new financial reporting practice may cause delays in the recovery as companies adjust their accounting methods to conform with the new SAB 101 rules.
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