We know that the standard linear components will continue to be dominated by requirements and trends in power-management ICs-though I would expect to see an increasing business impact from wireless and RF devices. We know that the custom mixed-signal IC business-disk drives and modem chips-will continue to be dominated by IC integration issues and talents, and by the ability to render complex analog circuits in digital CMOS. But who emerges as top dog in those markets-the number-one supplier of analog and mixed-signal ICs-may be a boardroom rather than a technology or engineering decision.

I'd watch for a jockeying for position between the major analog and mixed-signal IC suppliers. They include Texas Instruments, STMicroelectronics, National Semiconductor, Analog Devices and such profitable little companies as Maxim Integrated Products and Linear Technology. Philips Semiconductors comes on and off the charts, depending on whether its products are classified as consumer circuits or standard mixed-signal components.

STMicroelectronics was just behind TI in mixed-signal IC shipments in 1997. STM president Pasquale Pistorio told analysts in November that TI's number slot that year was contingent on its 1996 acquisition of Silicon Systems Inc., then the leader in disk-drive read channels. A stumble by TI in the area of disk-drive read channels could bring STM back into view as the world's largest supplier of analog and mixed-signal ICs, Pistorio said. Both TI and STM (as well as Philips) are shipping a little over $2 billion in mixed-signal products, and a difference of $100 million or $200 million could shift the number-one slot toward one or the other.

For its part, Texas Instruments has retained the leadership position by acquiring other companies (power-management IC supplier Unitrode, for example) and by shifting its portfolio from custom ICs to a higher proportion of catalog products. But whether the 168 standard linear products it introduced in 1999 will bolster sagging revenue from disk drives and other custom ICs in 2000 remains to be seen.