Optimists might have hoped that, now that combined residential broadband offerings in the United States were approaching 20 million customers, cable TV multisystem operators and incumbent phone carriers alike would start feeling comfortable with this stuff. In an ideal universe, the second half of 2003 would witness the acceleration of the upward ramp.
But vested interests and regulatory games are preventing that from happening, yet again. And this time, semiconductor suppliers like Infineon and Globespan/Virata are shifting the bulk of attention to Asian and European markets, where growth in affordable broadband service seems far more assured than in North America. If the United States becomes a broadband backwater, the first system vendors to feel the pain will likely be the residential-gateway designers.
When I wrote about integrated Docsis functions for next-generation cable modems in Communication Systems Design last summer, the MSOs were on the cusp of deciding whether to accept integrated 802.11b access points within a residential gateway. Even then, many MSOs were worried about shared broadband access as "stealing," and about the liabilities of content issues in distributed digital files. Since the Recording Industry Association of America has gone on a new assault to shut down Soulseek, Kazaa and other services, the MSOs have decided to be cautious.
As a result, USA Today reported in mid-February, the MSOs are trying all kinds of anti-competitive tricks to prevent customers from buying retail cable modems on store shelves. BestBuy and Circuit City have formally complained to FCC Chairman Michael Powell about the efforts at AT&T/Comcast and Mediacom to lock customers into lease arrangements so that they can raise prices.
Not that incumbent phone providers are much better. The horse-trading within the FCC over unbundled network elements and line sharing was getting as hot as U.N. debates prior to an anticipated Feb. 20 vote. Powell wanted to phase out CLEC access to ILEC switches while preserving line sharing; Democrats were leaning toward a complex plan to increase the power of state public utility commissions, while ending DSL line sharing. The upshot in both cases: higher DSL prices.
What could have been a collaborative effort by ILEC and MSO carriers is turning into a short-term bid to maximize profits temporarily, while screwing the consumer and stalling broadband access yet again. Why do the carriers' self-inflicted wounds seem so much like the rest of the technology industry in this grim year?