As the communications IC industry prepares for the Wireless '03 and Optical Fibers in Communications conferences this month, the product launches almost give reason to hope. Names we haven't seen for several quarters are coming out of hibernation to update product families, even if they have to depend on offshore markets for the time being.

On the laser transceiver front, it looks as though survivors Intel, Iolon and Agility Communications will help lead us through the tunable-laser graveyard at the OFC show, proving that a moribund market doesn't have to mean that all good component concepts die on the vine.

Yet, this comes at a time when those in the customer food chain-which includes OEMs, service providers and enterprise users-are grumpy. Fraud in the telecom carrier market is not over, as evidenced by the recent criminal indictments of several former Qwest executives. IT spending hasn't shown much sign of improving, as enterprise managers tell IT departments to get by with LANs, SANs and access equipment that flat out don't work. And, of course, the prospect of war has everyone in a bad mood, worried not just about the costs and the casualties, but also about the prospect of dipping back into a springtime recession.

Since I'm always pitching the silver lining, I'll weigh in for hardware innovation coming close to a tipping point in the next few months. There is a backlog of exciting new designs in a variety of realms-packet processors, optical-interface framers, digital baseband processors, digital logic/MEMS hybrids-you name it.

Whether the tipping point is real or not can be judged by who attends the March shows, as well as NetWorld+Interop in May and Supercomm in June. I'm not talking sheer numbers here. With travel already reduced to nothing and war threatening to bring it down a notch below zero, the attendance at most spring shows will be miserable. The important factor to watch is the determination of the tire kickers. IC vendors can't look too desperate, because few OEMs will be taking out their checkbooks on the spot. But if a few attendees start to take serious notice of the specs of next-generation designs, 2003 may well end on a high note. Hey, it could happen.