Here in technical publishing, we've experienced pain just as intense as yours, and the trajectory is following the old adage about the darkest hour being before the dawn. The biggest layoffs in the technical trade press came in the first half of 2003, hitting every sector. Some magazines are down to one editor, reflecting size changes from several hundred pages per month to 24-page brochures.

While we're seeing some advertising upturn this fall, there's reason to treat high-tech stock run-ups with trepidation. All the talk of a jobless recovery remains true for most sectors, and the dry rot plaguing several communications companies has not been fully treated yet.

At the National Fiber Optics Engineers Conference early this month, there was a bit more optimism than a year ago, despite the show attracting fewer than 3,000 attendees. Yes, there are switching and add-drop mux OEMs seeing carrier business that was not present a year ago, provided they can show platforms that reduce both capital and operating expenditures.

But at the same time, too many chip companies, too many network equipment companies, have a tenuous reason for existence. It's all well and good when an optical cross-connect company like Sycamore says it's got cash on hand to ride out scores of quarters' worth of downturn, but how many venture-backed startups can make similar claims?

Consequently, design starts and mild orders coming in the fourth quarter may not be matched by new job requisitions. Here in Colorado, I've seen several talented engineers with extremely marketable skills from Hewlett-Packard, MCI/WorldCom, Agilent, LSI Logic and Atmel leave the area after determining there are no emerging opportunities available in the region stretching from Cheyenne to Albuquerque. And don't even get me started on San Jose-area devastation.

At next week's Communications Design Conference, we're convinced that the atmosphere will be more upbeat than that of the last two years. The attendance trends themselves, and the mere fact that the show survives, reflect that this is true. But we should expect many of those attending to hold their smiles through tightly clenched teeth. Companies can still be expected to give up the ghost, and others may not resume hiring until late 2004 or early 2005.

Loring Wirbel is Communications editorial director for EE Times and its network publications.