For the record, there are three huge issues limiting the growth of the wireless industry. I've already talked about the first two-security and safety-in earlier columns. Neither is a showstopper. OK, the jury is out on safety, but I'd be very surprised if the lawyers establish a link between brain tumors and the nonionizing radiation emitted by a cell phone. And we can address the security issues by providing features essentially identical to those on wire.
The real issue- surprise, surprise-is power. Batteries, to be precise. Lithium ion and lithium polymer are about as good as it gets for now, and they're actually doing pretty well. We have seen great progress in effective battery life in cell phones and other wireless and mobile devices in recent years, thanks to the powerful combination of new process technologies, improved radio designs, power-saving features built into chips and power-saving protocols inherent in essentially every wireless technology from paging to 3G. Still, more talk time is always better, and it would be great not to have to carry a spare battery for those all-too-frequent times when the primary one goes dead at the worst possible moment.
But it seems that the best hope for extending run-times in the future is the fuel cell. We're not seeing huge leaps in the performance of lithium-based cells, and there is certainly no Moore's Law for batteries. Fuel cells are thus quite appealing: They get refueled, not recharged. There are no long waits connected to ac; plug in new fuel, and you're off. But too little attention has been paid to the safety issues associated with this otherwise promising approach.
Would you knowingly get on an airplane with someone carrying a cylinder of hydrogen, butane or methane? And forget suicidal terrorists; I'm more concerned about the careless consumer-the individual who throws NiCd cells into landfills without a second thought. How much education will such people need? What additional safety systems will have to be implemented-with the associated greater cost, complexity and physical size-to compensate for consumer carelessness? Fuel cells will not be foolproof, and therein lies their greatest obstacle to success. Add in CO2 and water production, and excess heat, and you have a technology that won't be ready for market anytime soon.
I look forward to using fuel-cell technology to power my home, recharge my batteries and save myself a few bucks in the process. But a fuel cell in my cell phone? No time soon, I'm afraid.
Craig Mathias is an analyst at the Farpoint Group (Ashland, Mass.).
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