In early 2001, when most pundits were debating whether the technology recovery would take the shape of a "V" or "U," Jeremy Bunting of Thomas Weisel Partners warned investors that the bottom of the graph would look more like a trough-in fact, like a bathtub, in which it would be difficult to see your feet from the head of the tub. While he was dismissed then as a pessimist, Bunting probably understated the case; the "bathtub's" proportions rival Lake Erie's.

As we near mid-2003, a full three years after the collapse began, we can almost see our toes wiggle, if we squint. In my last column, I made this week's Supercomm show sound like a Monster Mash overpopulated by zombies. But as I prepared my Supercomm appointment list on Memorial Day, I noticed subtle hints of stability in comms.

Among the survivors headed for Supercomm are Cisco, Ciena, Lucent, Avaya, Sun, Nortel, Alcatel and Marconi. Semiconductor suppliers again acknowledge that the communications market has legs, evidenced by the pending Supercomm presence of larger players like Agere, Intel, AMCC, Vitesse and Infineon. Also notable is the range of DSL specialists, like Ikanos and Metalink, that will be at the show.

True interoperability

For those who recall Supercomm's salad days, back when Alcatel sponsored the Dixie Chicks, this year will be relatively quiet. Juniper Networks may pull off the year's best soiree just by setting out wine and stuffed mushrooms. But wasn't all that party-headiness just so much froth-not to mention a waste of investor capital?

It's ironic that the sponsor of last year's telecom wake, Allegro Networks, is now itself on the ropes. But the survivors at this year's Supercomm will be happy with a bottle of beer, veggie crudites and the thought that those wiggling toes on the horizon just might be real customers.

Loring Wirbel is Communications editorial director for EE Times and its network publications.

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