Bluetooth has received attention as a low-power, low-cost, short-range wireless technology for connecting a variety of electronic devices. To date, the momentum has failed to translate into shipments of certified Bluetooth-enabled products, but Allied Business Intelligence does not perceive an attendant lack of interest in Bluetooth technology.

From a software perspective, the industry must address errata with specification revisions if the debut of Bluetooth-enabled devices is to avoid a replay of the software-related interoperability problems that plagued the rollout of IrDA-enabled products.

The lack of production-volume silicon has also been an issue. However, a handful of silicon vendors, including Cambridge Silicon Radio and Silicon Wave, should be in volume production by the end of the year.

Recent delays in getting products to market have also been due to the Bluetooth Qualification Program-the official product certification process-which is taking device vendors longer to negotiate than expected.

Some pundits suggest Bluetooth will see its window of opportunity closed with the success of IEEE 802.11b-compliant products. This is nonsense. Bluetooth is optimized from a design and cost perspective for integration into power-constrained devices such as mobile handsets and PDAs. For the most part, wireless LAN solutions and Bluetooth will be complementary, with WLAN solutions providing further operating ranges and greater data rates.

The aim of Bluetooth is not to have the best possible radio performance but to enable a cost structure that encourages broad adoption. There is a high degree of complexity involved-especially in the radio design-in delivering a technology that is based on the premise of easy wireless connectivity.

Several players are targeting the silicon opportunity for Bluetooth solutions and, in the process, are creating an immensely competitive and innovative silicon market. That activity is predicted to drive steep declines in the price of Bluetooth silicon solutions. Allied Business Intelligence forecasts that the typical Bluetooth module, which includes the radio, baseband controller and memory, should be available for less than $5 beyond 2003.

We are not as optimistic about Bluetooth-enabled device shipments in 2000. Although vendors such as Motorola and GN Netcom have received full certification for their Bluetooth products, more than few equipment vendors will miss their stated shipment targets in the fourth quarter.

Much of 2001 will be spent seeding the market. Significant volumes of Bluetooth-enabled devices will ship in 2002, when silicon costs will have begun to drop, software issues will have been resolved and OEMs will be ready for mass adoption, particularly if software developers deliver compelling applications. Annual Bluetooth-enabled device shipments will grow to just over 1.4 billion devices by 2005.

Navin Sabharwal is Director of Residential and Networking Technologies at Allied Business Intelligence Inc. (Oyster Bay, N.Y.).