Though mass DSL deployment has been slower than expected, the technology is here to stay as the method for residential broadband access. Consequently, PC manufacturers focusing on today's market, with its less-than-perfect DSL provisioning process, are being shortsighted.

The asymmetric-DSL modem market will follow the same development path as the dial-up modem, meaning that as soon as current problems are resolved, new PCs will ship with bundled ADSL modems. OEMs must realize the importance of bundling ADSL modems as a means to achieve mass DSL deployment.

Modems are in every computer for Internet connectivity. Once the price of an internal modem dropped below $35, in the mid-1990s, PC makers bundled them into all new computers. Modem chip set manufacturers further reduced the cost of modems by implementing all of the processing functions through the host CPU, achieving a true "software modem."

Today, the ADSL market is in its early-adopter phase. Service providers give their customers free or subsidized external ADSL modems in return for long-term service contracts. Subscribers want the benefit of ADSL's high-data-rate, always-on connection and are willing to pay for it. However, the telephony infrastructure keeps ADSL from mass deployment.

Telephone-line characteristics require that ADSL subscribers be located within 18,000 feet of the central office. In the United States, only 60 percent of the population lives within this distance. Additionally, 30 percent of U.S. households are connected to the telephone network through a digital loop carrier, which does not support ADSL communications.

While those problems can be identified prior to the installation of ADSL modems, other impairments are not documented. This means that, even if a prospective subscriber prequalifies for ADSL service, there is still a 25 to 30 percent probability he or she will not be able to achieve ADSL service. Those issues must be addressed before ADSL technology can move into the mainstream.

Assuming infrastructure problems will be resolved, the ADSL market is expected to follow the technology adoption curve of the dial-up modem-namely, a large share of the market will be software modems. In 2004, Cahners' In-Stat Group projects that only 3 percent of all modems will be full- hardware, 37 percent will be controller-less and as many as 60 percent will be full-software modems.

ADSL will move into the mainstream when the probability of being able to subscribe to ADSL service is close to 100 percent, all infrastructure problems are solved, the actual number of ADSL users is in the tens of millions, and modems are priced below $25. If PC manufacturers realize early the necessity of bundling ADSL modems, they will be prepared for consumer demand, and the mass-provisioning process will be achieved.

Yoram Solomon is Director of Broadband and Wireless Products at Pctel inc. (Milpitas, Calif.).

http://www.eetimes.com/