Jimmy Treybig, the founder of Tandem Computer, lives in Austin now and works as a venture capitalist, serving on the boards of an array of software and computer startups.

Happening to sit next to each other on a flight home, we got to talking about the downturn and what might pull the industry out of its slump. Treybig said that he didn't know exactly what new technology would fuel the next upturn, but he was sure that something would come along.

"If I knew what it was, we wouldn't be having this conversation," he noted.

Venture companies have spent tens of billions of dollars to fund the brightest minds worldwide, Treybig said. Those people are working on new forms of software and hardware that will make huge differences in computing and communications, he assured me.

I've met a few industry luminaries like Jimmy Treybig recently, and many of them are optimistic that there actually is a Next Big Thing lurking out there. What that product is, nobody knows. I personally can't think of another product, like the videogame machine or the cell phone, that will put the industry back into rocket mode. But I can think of plenty of neat gadgets that I can't afford just yet.

Gordon Moore raised a note of caution a few years back, noting that at some point, the electronics industry would get so large that its growth would be limited by global economic conditions. We may be near that point now. Getting the electronics industry back into growth mode may depend to a large degree on improving the incomes of the world's 6 billion people.

That brings to mind another point that Treybig made on the Nerd Bird. In too many nations around the world, crime and corruption are gaining ground. Certain places that were a pleasure for travelers in the 1960s now just aren't safe to visit, much less do business in, he said ruefully.

The Next Big Thing may be out there. But making it affordable to more people may depend on civilization defending itself against overpopulation, crime and chaos.

Send feedback to dlammers@cmp.com.