In a fascinating presentation at the recent Communications Design Conference, Randy Richter of Unisphere Networks suggested the near-term scenario is worse than we thought. Richter said there's still a fundamental disconnect between the "stupid" model of soft switch, following IP-centric client-server models and using Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) proxies; and the "intelligent" model from the telephony world. The latter follows the Advanced Intelligent Network model of deployment and assumes the use of Megaco gateways.

In deployment, Richter said, the stupid SIP model should be favored, since it eases client rollouts for newer carriers and allows wider use of IP services. But without a master-slave arrangement in the net, it's unclear how the carrier could bill for services that two SIP clients set up peer-to-peer.

The scenario gets worse when we consider the Communication Assistance to Law Enforcement Act. Since the SIP model makes it more difficult for a carrier to prove to the FBI that it can tap packets, there is very little incentive for proliferating SIP proxies.

By contrast, the soft-switch set up as a call agent or media gateway controller uses the intelligence of the central network and lets carriers maintain five-nines reliability. It also allows carriers to prove to the federal government that all packet traffic, voice or data, can in theory be tapped. Richter's conclusion was that "stupid may be better, but intelligent will be deployed first."

But neither is looking too good. Richter concluded with an analysis of a recent RHK Inc. survey, conducted before Sept. 11. What RHK called the worst-case scenario, of continued contraction through mid-2002, Richter now calls, "the best we can hope for." That scenario sees a slight increase of high-density media gateways, and a flat market for soft switches.

Richter said that putting the incumbent carriers in the driver's seat assures slow growth for soft switches, and that the heightened security craze for central offices and Internet points of presence will virtually assure that intelligent media gateways trump the peer-based SIP proxies in a big way. The soft switch just can't get any respect.