I'm impressed with the innovation in wireless, with so many products and services introduced, and some of them really making a difference in people's lives. While it's tough to single out the most significant directions, here goes.

First, 2002 is going to be a big year for public-access wireless LANs. Despite a rocky road to date, 802.11b (and eventually .11a) WLANs will provide broad public-space access, in many ways outshining the promise of 3G with better performance and lower cost. Oddly, the major cellular operators (like VoiceStream and Sprint) will lead the charge here, partially because they are a little afraid of the competition WLANs might bring and because they know that 3G technologies will never compete with WLANs on price and especially on throughput. Being able to take one's mobile information device (notebook, PDA or whatever) and remain connected in a uniform fashion with wire-like speed will be one of 2002's big success stories.

On the other hand, I see relatively slow going for 2.5G, 3G and Bluetooth. The buildout costs for advanced cellular networks are enormous, and initial pricing is high enough to screen out all but those with unlimited expense accounts or easily cost-justified applications (if there still is such a thing). Throughput is also going to be less than advertised, coverage will be spotty and the standards battles are confusing.

3G will be used mainly to offer more voice capacity and more responsive WAP service, but the idea of functional equivalence with land lines will have to wait.

Bluetooth seems to be refocusing marketing energies on its original mission of serial-cable replacement. But users want a real network link, not another RS-232. Your cell phone on the Internet? You bet, but Bluetooth isn't the way to do it.

Many other exciting developments will see progress in 2002. Two that I especially like are self-organizing mesh networks and software-defined radios. Meshes bring the routing concepts of the Net to dynamic wireless networks, essentially implementing cellular communications but without the need for fixed cells. SDRs eventually will allow the construction of universal handsets and other subscriber units with much lower cost, and greater reliability, serviceability and extensibility.

Craig Mathias is an Analyst with the Farpoint Group (Ashland, Mass.).