If skeptics were searching for a few signs of recovery in telecommunications, the International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas was the place to look. The attendee numbers, in excess of 130,000, led most pundits to focus on the CES vs. Comdex battle, declaring the former show the long-term winner, due to its wider array of client platforms.
But the second source of potential good news at CES involved 2.5G and third-generation wireless services. We can't afford to be too optimistic-after all, 3G pioneer Docomo is warning of slower ramps in its i-mode service than originally anticipated-but there certainly were signs of life among carriers and handset providers alike in mid-January.
Sprint made the biggest splash at personal communications services, pledging to offer a variety of 3G services by midsummer, and signing a supply agreement with Samsung Electronics, under which the Korean manufacturer would offer as many as 3 million cdma2000 phones to Sprint. Critics were faulting Sprint for following its traditional route of playing fast and loose with definitions. Five years ago, the company dubbed its 800-MHz digital cellular service "PCS," even though that was supposed to be reserved for 1.8-GHz digital services. At CES, Sprint chief executive William Esrey spoke of a 3G service, even though the 144-kbit/second maximum data rate falls into what most analysts call 2.5G. But, hey, at least it's a start.
By the end of the show on Jan. 11, good news was spreading to OEMs, as long as one didn't pay too close attention to Motorola's continued layoffs. Samsung was augmenting its production ramp with new licenses from L.M. Ericsson. Nokia and Kyocera launched reasonably priced dual-mode phones, while Nokia simultaneously rolled out high-end 3G phones for the filthy rich. And Motorola signed a three-way deal with Nextel and Qualcomm, in order to add cdma2000 code-division technology to the iDen "push to talk" phones used in Nextel's specialized mobile radio networks.
Thankfully, Wall Street didn't use the love fest at CES to spur a run-up in the share price of wireless carriers and OEMs. There's still a long road ahead of us, particularly in showing consumers the advantages of packet-based and streaming media services to augment simple circuit-switched voice. But in times like these, we need to be thankful for even tenuous signs of life among service providers.