For a time, there was some confusion as to how quickly the government would liberalize the transfer of the process technology to China, and whether it was inclined to do it at all. Not that it matters, since the industry will find a way to go even if its members have to register shell companies in the Cayman Islands. Even civil servants can understand this is a fait accompli.

No matter the angle, the situation always distills to the same end point. Either give semiconductor manufacturers the freedom to migrate to China, and risk losing their investment dollars at home-or suffocate them by barring entry to China, then watch as competitors swoop in and eat up the China pie, leading to a lesser need for Taiwanese fabs.

The government already knows which is the lesser of two evils. The holdup stems from national security and other noneconomic officials, who want assurances that chip manufacturers, especially the foundries, won't exit Taiwan after the door is cracked open.

One government official, who sits on the committee deciding the matter, told EE Times that his agency wanted to see at least a five-year forecast on semiconductor industry competition on the mainland. It also wants guarantees that chip makers will keep their R&D dollars at home.

These shouldn't be sticking points. Such long-term forecasts, whether spun by independent consultants or the companies themselves, are unreliable. The current downturn has shown us that. And any promises that are made now will either be forgotten later or are nonbinding anyway.

Instead of trying to extract such promises, the government should be thinking about the proactive steps it can take to make these guys want to stay. It has already started along that path by promoting various programs in system-on-chip integration, communications IC design and software development.

Government officials should remember that it makes little sense to send advanced process R&D guys to the motherland to work, where access to advanced process tools will continue to be problematic because of export restrictions in Europe, the United States and Japan. Looking at the larger picture, if Taiwan really believes communist China is more competitive than it is, then it's got bigger things to worry about than 8-inch wafer fabs.