If the last few years-nay, the last few months-have been any indication, we'll likely deal with some regional weather and climate conditions that NERC does not address in its report.

The nation added 48,000 megawatts of generating capacity during the past year, a 6 percent increase. That won't help any, though, when it comes to accessing the power you'll need on any given summer day. That's because NERC performs a standard "90-10 weather" assessment (i.e., it assumes 10 percent hot-weather conditions), and the seasonal forecasts from the National Weather Service, at least in the opinion of this meteorologist, are cloudy and, thus, not very helpful.

It's not a question of whether drought or general climate in the Northeast will wreak havoc with generating capacity (it won't). Neither will the usual peak-demand issue or the daily "transmission congestion."

The problem, to me, is the dynamic violence of the increasingly unpredictable seasonal weather everywhere. Combine that with sagging use of uninterruptible power supplies (UPSes) at the low- to medium-kVA levels, and the result is totally predictable for the smaller companies that have managed to expand despite the economic downturn.

Most people understand that variability defines weather and climate. The sticky part comes in when the frequency and variability of the anomalies fight the probability and statistics. Several years ago in late June, we had our first tornado ever on this small mountaintop. Last winter was warm and extremely dry-highly unusual conditions. On May 14, we had torrential rain, temperatures in the low 40s and wind gusts to 50 mph. Today, the temperature is 75 degrees , with wind gusts to 40.

To me it's more than strange, but it's probably the same everywhere. So despite power aplenty, I believe we're in for trouble.

Indeed, it could well snow in August. That's my "weather-power index" prediction for this summer, and I'll stick by it. Get a UPS.