Judging by the cryptic information that has crossed my desk of late, I suspect that fuel cells will arrive in near-production numbers for the U.S. automotive market well within the five- to 10-year window often quoted, perhaps even by the end of 2003. And I see signs that versatile fuel cells will be touted as potential competitors for traditional batteries in a broad range of applications beyond the automotive.
You still have to read between the lines to get at the useful information, but the telltale indicators aren't too hard for a reporter to detect. One gains experience in noticing guarded verbiage from various sources, observing what's happening with the background infrastructure and then connecting the dots. It's like watching a group of chefs subtly, even secretly, cooking up a masterpiece-a case of "If I can't see, I can smell," as my grandfather used to say. In this case, all the ingredients are there.
One can hardly miss the collection of obtusely worded releases as well as the hard news coming out of Japan on the advances in fuel cell automotives. Developments in North America, where activity has been steady but relatively quiet, have focused on the research aspects of this emerging technology.
Look closely, though, and you'll see the stuff escaping from the lab. Metallic Power (Chula Vista, Calif.) recently touted a zinc-air fuel cell that can be refueled on the road-and that reportedly survived real-world environmental hurdles to make the grade. Ansoft Corp. (Pittsburgh) has just added a software model for fuel cells in its Simplorer package-the program tied in with hybrid vehicles and 42-volt automotives.
Now consider that certain industries enjoy peak activity during an economic downturn, that the environmental movement is growing worldwide, that hybrid vehicles are finding increasing acceptance and that U.S. automakers are taking a more proactive approach against the competition, and you discover the story hiding in plain sight.
Indeed, about 90 percent of all the leads I've run down on fuel cells in recent times reduce to one sentence for our industry: "It'll be five years yet." That's probably largely true for wireless applications because of a host of consumer economics issues.
I've never doubted for a second, though, that for tasks where space is not the overriding concern, fuel cells will soon break through.
Now let's see what happens.